Use of Bayesian networks in forensic soil casework

A collection of idioms for modeling activity level evaluations in forensic science

“…One may also use separate BNs for each hypothesis. Cause-consequence idioms are frequently presented in forensic and legal research, whether in template models [ 3 , 9 , 13 , 26 , 27 , [37] , [38] , [39] , [40] , [41] , [42] , [43] , [44] , [45] , [46] , [47] , [48] , [49] , [50] , [51] , [52] , [53] , [54] , [55] , [56] , [57] , [58] , [59] , [60] , [61] , [62] , [63] ] or case models [ [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [64] , [65] , [66] , [67] , [68] , [69] , [70] , [71] , [72] , [73] , [74] , [75] , [76] ]. …”

“…Both the hypothesis-to-activity idiom and the hypothesis-to-transfer idiom are essential in activity level evaluations and therefore appear in many forensic templates [ 9 , 48 , 54 , 58 , 59 , 61 , 62 ] and case models [ 32 , 64 , 65 , [67] , [68] , [69] , [70] , [71] , [72] , [73] , [74] , [75] , [76] , 78 , 79 ]. Although earlier research involving template models and case models such as [ 42 ] has also focused on activity level examinations, the use of the hypothesis-to-activity idiom is, to the best of our knowledge, only notably present in later work (2015 until now) - with the exception of Evett et al [ 64 ].…”

“… The LR-calculation idiom should be used with caution as it only works if the prior odds are set to 1 and with two ‘simple’ hypotheses. Synthesis idioms are frequently integrated in forensic template models and case models, including [ 48 , 54 , 58 , 60 , 63 , 64 , 68 , 69 , 71 , 72 , 75 , 76 , 80 , 82 ]. To be more specific [ 48 , 54 , 58 , 68 , 69 , 72 , 75 , 76 ], illustrate models that use the trace-accumulation idiom (including the background level of trace material).…”

“…uncertainty can be substituted with any uncertain factor related to the evidence (evaluation). Common modeled uncertainties regarding the evidence in forensic activity level evaluations are the relevance of an item (if modeled as uncertainty root node) [ 3 ], sufficient recovery of the trace material [ 48 , 54 , 58 , 60 , 75 ] and correct interpretation of the evidence [ 47 ]. All these variables can be instantiations of the uncertainty node in the evidence-uncertainty idiom.…”

“… The evidence-accuracy idiom, the evidence-reliability idiom, and the evidence-credibility idiom are examples of legal evidence-conditioning idioms. Item relevance, recovery of trace material and other uncertainties regarding the evidence are frequently modeled in forensic activity level evaluations, see for example [ 3 , 36 , 48 , 54 , 58 , 60 , 68 , 75 ]. …”