Use of El Niño Climate Forecasts in Australia

Podbury, Troy; Sheales, Terry; Hussain, Intizar; Fisher, Brian S.

doi:10.2307/1244211

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Australian grain farmers thus face a higher production volatility than most other grain-exporting countries (Kimura and Le Thi 2011). According to Podbury et al (1998), the coefficient of variation of de-trended Australian wheat yield from 1960 to 1997 was 19%, compared with 7% for the USA. The major source of the year-to-year rainfall variation is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (McBride and Nicholls 1983;Manton et al 2006;Risbey et al 2009).…”

Section: Wheat In Winter-rainfall Environmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactions between water and nitrogen in Australian cropping systems: physiological, agronomic, economic, breeding and modelling perspectives

et al. 2016

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This paper reviews the interactions between water and nitrogen from physiological, agronomic, economic, breeding and modelling perspectives. Our primary focus is wheat; we consider forage crops, sorghum and legumes where relevant aspects of water-nitrogen interactions have been advanced.From a physiological perspective, we ask: How does nitrogen deficit influence the water economy of the crop? How does water deficit influence the nitrogen economy of the crop? How do combined water and nitrogen deficit affect crop growth and yield? We emphasise synergies, and the nitrogen-driven trade-off between the efficiency in the use of water and nitrogen. The concept of nitrogen-water co-limitation is discussed briefly.From agronomic and economic perspectives, the need to match supply of nitrogen and water is recognised, but this remains a challenge in dryland systems with uncertain rainfall. Under-fertilisation commonly causes gaps between actual and water-limited potential yield. We discuss risk aversion and the role of seasonal rainfall forecasts to manage risk.From a breeding perspective, we ask how selection for yield has changed crop traits relating to water and nitrogen. Changes in nitrogen traits are more common and profound than changes in water-related traits. Comparison of shifts in the wheat phenotype in Australia, UK, Argentina and Italy suggests that improving yield per unit nitrogen uptake is straightforward; it requires selection for yield and allowing grain protein concentration to drift unchecked. A more interesting proposition is to increase nitrogen uptake to match yield gains and conserve protein in grain. Increased stomatal conductance is a conspicuous response to selection for yield which partially conflicts with the perception that reduced conductance at high vapour pressure deficit is required to increase water-use efficiency; but high stomatal conductance at high vapour pressure deficit may be adaptive for thermal stress.From a modelling perspective, water and nitrogen are linked in multiple ways. In crops where water limits growth, reduced biomass reduces nitrogen demand. Reciprocally, nitrogen limitation during crop expansion reduces leaf area index and increases the soil evaporation : transpiration ratio. Water-nitrogen interactions are also captured in the waterdriven uptake of nitrogen by mass flow and diffusion and in the water-driven processes of nitrogen in soil (e.g. mineralisation).The paper concludes with suggestions for future research on water-nitrogen interactions.

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Section: Wheat In Winter-rainfall Environmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactions between water and nitrogen in Australian cropping systems: physiological, agronomic, economic, breeding and modelling perspectives

et al. 2016

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“…Despite a high level of water infrastructure investment, Australia's irrigated agricultural production still remains variable, driven by highly variable weather sequences (Podbury et al, 1998). Australia's climate is amongst the most variable in the world resulting in high variation of rainfall and streamflow (Finlayson & McMahon, 1991, Chiew & McMahon, 2003.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia

Dutta¹,

Ritchie²,

Freebairn³

et al. 2006

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

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“…While lengthy time series of rainfall data certainly exist, more than 50 years of data will still not guarantee an accurate probability assessment. For example, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon could change the probability of the insured events (Podbury et al, 1998). Therefore, it may be necessary to adjust the cost of the insurance when an ENSO event is confirmed, although this would require sufficient lead-time between knowledge of the pending event and the time of selling insurance.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall Insurance: A Promising Tool for Drought Management

Zeuli

Skees

2005

International Journal of Water Resources Development

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Diverse and complex water management systems have been created in many areas of the world to manage the risk of drought. The primary challenge is the inherent uncertainty of water supply and demand over time, which makes the process of correctly allocating water rights annually a difficult and costly task. As a result, risk averse water authorities make overly conservative estimates of water supply. This paper introduces the use of a rainfall index contract as a tool to improve drought management. An irrigation district in New South Wales, Australia, is used as an illustration of the concept.

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Use of El Niño Climate Forecasts in Australia

Cited by 14 publications

References 10 publications

Interactions between water and nitrogen in Australian cropping systems: physiological, agronomic, economic, breeding and modelling perspectives

Interactions between water and nitrogen in Australian cropping systems: physiological, agronomic, economic, breeding and modelling perspectives

Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia

Rainfall Insurance: A Promising Tool for Drought Management

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