Geopolymers (GPs) are gaining prominence due to their low carbon emissions and sustainable attributes. However, one challenge with GPs, particularly those made with ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS), is their significant shrinkage during the geopolymerization process, limiting its practical applicability. This study focuses on how the substitution ratio of metakaolin (MK) and the concentration of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) in the activator can influence the shrinkage and strength of a GGBFS-based GP. The experimental approach employed a 3 × 3 parameter matrix, which varied MK substitution ratios (0%, 50%, and 100%) and adjusted the NaOH concentration (6 M, 10 M, and 14 M). The results revealed that increasing MK substitution, particularly with 6 M NaOH activation, reduced the GP shrinkage but also diminished compressive strength, requiring higher NaOH concentrations for strength improvement. Statistical tools, including analysis of variance (ANOVA) and second-order response surface methodology (RSM), were employed for analysis. ANOVA results indicated the significant impacts of both the MK content and NaOH concentration on compressive strength, with no observable interaction. However, the shrinkage exhibited a clear interaction between MK content and NaOH concentration. The RSM model accurately predicted compressive strength and shrinkage, demonstrating a high predictive accuracy, for which the coefficients of determination (R2) were 0.99 and 0.98, respectively. The model provides a reliable method for determining the necessary compressive strength and shrinkage for GGBFS-based GP based on MK substitution and NaOH concentration. Within the optimization range, the RSM model compared with experimental results showed a 6.04% error in compressive strength and 0.77% error in shrinkage for one interpolated parameter set. This study establishes an optimized parameter range ensuring a GP performance that is comparable to or surpassing OPC, with a parameter set achieving a compressive strength of 34.9 MPa and shrinkage of 0.287% at 28 days.