Use of mathematical and statistical concepts in the analysis and modeling of COVID-19 data in the state of Amapá

Abstract

The text addresses the global spread of COVID-19, with an emphasis on the inequalities and challenges faced by Brazil, especially in the state of Amapá. The importance of social interventions, such as isolation, expanded testing, and protection of health professionals, is highlighted. In Amapá, the study uses government data to analyze the dynamics of the pandemic in the first months, proposing mathematical modeling that shows an exponential trend in confirmed cases. The article highlights three distinct phases, associated with government measures and social events such as Mother's Day. The effectiveness of lockdown in reducing the spread is highlighted, and the study concludes by highlighting its contribution to the local understanding of COVID-19, proposing the application of the methodology to other epidemiological contexts.