Use of multiple failure models in injury epidemiology: a case study of arrest and intimate partner violence recidivism in Seattle, WA

Abstract

Background Single-failure survival models are commonly used in injury research. We aimed to demonstrate the application of multiple failure survival models in injury research by measuring the association between arrest and IPV recidivism. Methods We used data from a population-based cohort of 5466 male-female couples with a police-reported, male-perpetrated incident of IPV against their female partners that occurred in Seattle, WA during 1999–2001. We estimated the risk of physical and psychological IPV recidivism (separately) for the 12 months following the index event, according to perpetrator arrest or non-arrest for the index event. We used time-dependent extended Cox regression analyses for time-to-first IPV event and Prentice, Williams and Peterson model-based analyses for time-to-multiple IPV events. Results Arrest was associated with a reduction in time-to-first physical IPV recurrence but was not associated with time-to-first psychological IPV recurrence during the 12-month follow-up. Arrest was associated with a significantly decreased risk of physical and psychological IPV during the 12-month follow-up in the multiple failure models. The association between arrest and lower risk of physical IPV recidivism increased with increasing number of follow-up IPV events. Conclusions We found arrest to be a plausible deterrent for recurrent IPV reduction. Our study also illustrates the use of multiple failure survival analyses in injury research. Such techniques facilitate inference about estimands that may have greater public health relevance and properly account for injury recurrence. By using multiple failure models, we were able to more deeply understand the relationship between arrest and IPV over time.

Associations between state intimate partner violence-related firearm policies and injuries among women and men who experience intimate partner violence

“…IPV perpetrators with firearm access may have access to other weapons, however it is possible that the legal consequences in regard to restricting and removing firearms from IPV perpetrators (e.g., being arrested, being “served”, surrendering firearms to law enforcement or gun dealer) may reduce or deter a perpetrator’s motivation to inflict injury to an intimate partner. This rationale is consistent with an emerging body of research indicating that greater awareness and involvement with the legal consequences related to IPV were associated with lower incidents of subsequent IPV acts (Song et al 2017 ; Lyons et al 2019 ).…”

Intimate partner violence against women. Does violence decrease after the entry of the alleged offender into the criminal justice system?

“…In addition, the goal was to estimate the number of injured women rather than injury severity itself. Physical violence was found to be mostly minor, as found in other studies [ 6 , 39 ], while emotional and verbal abuse, despite its lasting consequences on victims’ health [ 6 , 40 ], was not systematically measured.…”

Examining the role of firearm involvement in repeat intimate partner violence assaults

“…One study focusing on a large cohort of firearm purchasers in California, shows that those with prior histories of IPV violence are much more likely to engage in subsequent IPV (Tomsich et al 2022 ). However, few studies have utilized information on recurrent IPV incidents (Lyons et al 2019 ) and there is a dearth of knowledge regarding the specific role of firearms in repeat IPV. Our paper explores how firearm involvement influences patterns of IPV recidivism, focusing on the frequency and timing of repeat IPV assaults using a longitudinal panel of police reported incidents.…”