Estimations of the effectiveness of vaccines against seasonal influenza virus are guided by comparisons of the antigenicities between influenza virus isolates from clinical breakthrough cases with strains included in a vaccine. This study examined whether the prediction of antigenicity using a sequence analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene-encoded HA1 domain is a simpler alternative to using the conventional hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay, which requires influenza virus culturing. Specimens were taken from breakthrough cases that occurred in a trivalent influenza virus vaccine efficacy trial involving >43,000 partici-