Use of RegCM gridded dataset for thunderstorm favorable conditions analysis over Poland—climatological approach

Abstract

The paper analyzes equivalent data for a low density meteorological station network (spatially discontinuous data) and poor temporal homogeneity of thunderstorm observational data. Due to that, a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) dataset was tested. The Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy index value (MUCAPE) above the 200 J kg −1 threshold was selected as a predictor describing favorable conditions for the occurrence of thunderstorms. The quality of the dataset was examined through a comparison between model results and soundings from several aerological stations in Central Europe. Good, statistically significant (0.05 significance level) results were obtained through correlation analysis; the value of Pearson's correlation coefficient was above 0.8 in every single case. Then, using methods associated with gridded climatology, data series for 44 weather stations were derived and an analysis of correlation between RegCM modeled data and in situ thunderstorm observations was conducted with coefficients in the range of 0.75-0.90. The possibility of employing the dataset in thunderstorm climatology analysis was checked via a few examples by mapping monthly, seasonal, and annual means. Moreover, longterm variability and trend analysis along with modeled MUCAPE data were tested. As a result, the RegCM modeled MUCAPE gridded dataset was proposed as an easily available, suitable, and valuable predictor for thunderstorm climatology analysis and mapping. Finally, some limitations are discussed and recommendations for further improvements are given.

Diurnal and Seasonal Variability of ERA5 Convective Parameters in Relation to Lightning Flash Rates in Poland

“…3) The greatest convective instability occurs from June to August between 1400 and 1600 UTC, with the highest lowlevel moisture at 1800 UTC. The results listed above are broadly consistent with prior studies concerning the climatological aspects of lightning (Anderson and Klugmann 2014;Poelman et al 2016;Taszarek et al 2019;Enno et al 2020), convective environments accompanying central European thunderstorms (Púčik et al 2015;Taszarek et al 2020;Walawender et al 2017;Westermayer et al 2017), and the comparison of satellite observations of thunderstorms with ERA-Interim environments over tropical and subtropical regions (Liu et al 2020).…”

Evaluation of convective parameters derived from pressure level and native ERA5 data and different resolution WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

“…Despite their spatial and temporal scarcity, direct aerological measurements accommodate a straightforward assessment of modeled convective variables. A few studies employed radiosonde observations for climate model verification (Seely and Romps 2015; Walawender et al 2017;Li et al 2020;Rasmussen et al 2020). Frequently utilized environmental proxy parameters include convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, and 0-6 km vertical wind shear.…”

On the relation of CMIP6 GCMs errors at RCM driving boundary condition zones and inner domain for Central Europe region

“…Urban et al 2021;Bandhauer et al 2022) or convective parameters (e.g. Taszarek et al 2021;Walawender et al 2017;Varga et al 2022). A comprehensive evaluation of upper air parameters is, as far as our knowledge, missing.…”