Use of situation and risk modeling in guidance solutions

Williams, Edwin A.; Jin, Yan

doi:10.1109/plans.2018.8373421

Cited by 2 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Although it should be noted that Dr. Endsley and others have updated this cognition method to include multiple agents and system situational awareness [12][13]. As was noted in [10] Endsley's model resembles the standard guidance, navigation, and control loop. The main difference is that SA views allow for a broader scope of data, beyond standard navigation state and sensor data.…”

Section: Situation Awarenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Like was used in [10], we define two risk components. We look at the risk that comes from the theater itself.…”

Section: A Collision Risk Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…( ) e −rt (10) Our discount rate, r, is set by arbitrarily saying that at our final projection time, t f , the value of that state is 1% of the value of our current risk state. This is given in Eq.…”

Section: ʹ R = R Isk Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The iSC method is currently being developed at the University of Southern California (USC), which is a cognitive computing approach to situation awareness and collision avoidance. Currently this method is being applied to the task of collision avoidance in maritime applications [10]. The similarities between the STM problem and maritime problem are striking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Low Earth Orbit Debris Avoidance Using Situation-Risk Assessment Modeling

Williams

Jin

2018

2018 AIAA SPACE and Astronautics Forum and Exposition

Self Cite

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Launch and on orbit operations for debris-field avoidance has been an issue in the community for many years. However, with the increase in commercial space traffic, the need for assessing the risk of space activities has become more important. In this paper, we used the situation-risk assessment (SRA) method contained within the intelligent situation assessment and collision avoidance (iSC) platform to develop a risk analysis of space operations. We defined the concept of a launch theater and developed a risk metric to assess the chance of collision when traveling through the low earth orbit (LEO) debris field. Then, we then used this concept to make decisions that lowered the launch risk. Finally, this method was applied to objects already in orbit attempting to make decisions on how to avoid debris while also attempting to keep the necessary orbital parameters for mission success.

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Section: Situation Awarenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Like was used in [10], we define two risk components. We look at the risk that comes from the theater itself.…”

Section: A Collision Risk Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: ʹ R = R Isk Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Low Earth Orbit Debris Avoidance Using Situation-Risk Assessment Modeling

Williams

Jin

2018

2018 AIAA SPACE and Astronautics Forum and Exposition

Self Cite

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Dynamic Probability Fields for Risk Assessment and Guidance Solutions

Williams¹,

Jin²

2019

Annual of Navigation

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Standard Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) systems take state data from a navigation system and create a trajectory that minimizes some a-priori determined cost function. These cost functions are typically time, money, weight, or any general physically realizable quantity. Previous work has been done to show the effectiveness of using risk as the sole objective function. However, this previous work used Poisson distributions and historical estimates to achieve this goal. In this paper we present the situation-risk assessment (SRA) method contained within the intelligent situation assessment and collision avoidance (iSC) platform. The SRA method uses data clustering, and pattern recognition to create a historically based estimate of guidance probabilities. These are then used in data driven, dynamic models to create the future probability fields of the situation. This probability, along with the other agent’s goals and objectives, are then used to create a minimum risk guidance solution in the nautical environment.

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Use of situation and risk modeling in guidance solutions

Cited by 2 publications

References 20 publications

Low Earth Orbit Debris Avoidance Using Situation-Risk Assessment Modeling

Low Earth Orbit Debris Avoidance Using Situation-Risk Assessment Modeling

Dynamic Probability Fields for Risk Assessment and Guidance Solutions

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