Use of Survival Time Analysis to Analyze Nesting Success in Birds: An Example Using Loggerhead Shrikes

Nur, Nadav; Holmes, Aaron L.; Geupel, Geoffrey R.

doi:10.1093/condor/106.3.457

Cited by 38 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Predation risk and nest survival were measured using both Mayfield (Mayfield 1975) and standard survival analysis (Nur et al 2004) in JMP version 7.0 (SAS Inst., NC). Both of these analyses control for days of exposure and therefore account for the shorter duration of the laying stage.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clutch predation in great tinamousTinamus majorand implications for the evolution of egg color

Brennan

2010

Journal of Avian Biology

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Egg camouflage has been found to reduce predation in several ground‐nesting species. Therefore, the evolution of eggs that lack camouflage in ground nesting birds is puzzling. Even though clutch predation in the tropics is high, tinamous are the only tropical ground‐nesting birds that do not build a nest and do not lay cryptic eggs. I studied predation of great tinamou clutches in a lowland tropical forest and found that risk of predation was higher during incubation when the eggs are covered by the parent, than during laying when they are exposed, suggesting that predators primarily use cues from the incubating males to locate the clutch and not cues from the eggs. Clutch size had no effect on predation rate, even though larger clutches are more conspicuous to a human observer. Predation by visual cues is likely reduced during incubation by the camouflaged plumage and high nest attendance of males. If most predators use cues from the incubating male and not the eggs to locate clutches, then conspicuous egg color may have evolved in great tinamous as an intra‐specific signal. I evaluate hypotheses that may explain the maintenance of conspicuous egg color in tinamous.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clutch predation in great tinamousTinamus majorand implications for the evolution of egg color

Brennan

2010

Journal of Avian Biology

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“…Failure-time analysis and Cox regression were used to explore patterns of nest survival (Nur et al 2004). Failure-time analysis is advantageous because with it one can build heuristic graphics that compare nest success, and it has a well-established statistical foundation, including ready incorporation of right-censored data.…”

Section: Statistical Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Habitat selection and the perceptual trap

Patten¹,

Kelly²

2010

Ecological Applications

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The concept of ''ecological traps'' was introduced over three decades ago. An ecological trap occurs when, by various mechanisms, low-quality (yielding low fitness) habitat is more attractive than good habitat, thus coaxing individuals to settle there despite a resultant loss of fitness. Empirical work on such traps has increased dramatically in the past decade, but the converse-avoidance of high-quality habitat because it is less attractive, what we term a ''perceptual trap''-has remained largely unexplored. Even so, depending on conditions (growth rate, strength of habitat preference, and mortality rate), such perceptual traps can be more limiting than ecological traps to population persistence. An example from field experiments with the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) lends empirical support to the concept, and several other potential examples suggest that these traps are perhaps more prevalent than has been appreciated. Because demographic Allee effects are expected to prevent a population from growing sufficiently in a habitat that is avoided, a perceptual trap may persist even though fitness is high. Unlike an ecological trap, which may be negated by increasing habitat quality, biologists will be hard pressed to negate a perceptual trap, which will require determining which cues an animal uses to select high-quality habitat and then devising a means of enhancing those cues so that an animal is lured into the habitat.

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“…‘Survival‐Time analysis’, Nur et al . ) because it facilitates clearer interpretation of continuous covariate effects and better allows for the control of data non‐independence where survival over time is not inherently of interest. We ran binomial generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) in r (glmer, lme4: R Core Team , Bates et al .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking day and night provides insights into the relative importance of different wader chick predators

Mason

Drewitt

2017

Ibis

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Poor reproductive success driven by nest and chick predation severely limits the population recovery of waders breeding on lowland wet grassland. Managing predation requires knowledge of the predators and because these can be grouped into nocturnal or diurnal hunters, detecting the timing of predation can help assess their relative impacts. Wader nest studies investigating the timing of egg predation have identified nocturnal mammals, primarily Red Foxes Vulpes vulpes, as the most important nest predators, but quantifying predator importance for highly mobile wader chicks is more difficult. Manual radiotelemetry can detect whether chicks are alive but cannot detect the time of predation, and predator identity can be determined only in the few cases where remains are recovered. As an alternative we used automatic radio tracking stations (ARTS) to constantly record the signals and predation timing of 179 radiotagged Lapwing Vanellus vanellus chicks, combining this with manual telemetry, inference about predator identity from predated remains and site-level Fox, mustelid and avian predator activity monitoring. This approach succeeded in detecting the time of predation for 60% of the 155 chicks that were predated. Diurnal chick predation accounted for a larger number of predation events, but nocturnal predation was more intensive in terms of predation likelihood per hour. Mammalian predation during both day and night had a larger impact on chick survival than did avian predation. Raptors were primarily responsible for predation by birds and Foxes for predation by mammals, with Foxes also having a larger influence on daily chick predation rates than other predators. Chick predation increased seasonally, implying that earlier-hatching breeding attempts are more likely to be successful. Higher Fox, raptor and mustelid activity resulted in higher proportions of chicks being predated by those predators, so quantifying the activity of those three predator groups on a site could be a quicker alternative to studying chicks when investigating which predator species to target with site-specific predation management.

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Use of Survival Time Analysis to Analyze Nesting Success in Birds: An Example Using Loggerhead Shrikes

Cited by 38 publications

References 49 publications

Clutch predation in great tinamousTinamus majorand implications for the evolution of egg color

Clutch predation in great tinamousTinamus majorand implications for the evolution of egg color

Habitat selection and the perceptual trap

Tracking day and night provides insights into the relative importance of different wader chick predators

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