Useful traditional knowledge indicators for drought forecasting in the Mzingwane Catchment area of Zimbabwe

Abstract

Purpose -The purpose of this paper is to identify, analyse and document local traditional indicators used in drought forecasting in the Mzingwane Catchment and to assess the possibility of integrating traditional rainfall forecasting, using the local traditional indicators, with meteorological forecasting methods. Design/methodology/approach -Self-administered structured questionnaires were conducted on 101 respondents in four districts of the Mzingwane Catchment area, namely, Beitbridge, Mangwe, Esighodini and Mwenezi from February to August 2012. In addition, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also used in data collection and the collected data were analysed for drought history and demographics; drought adaptation and the use of drought forecasting methods in the catchment using Statistical Package for Social Science. Findings -The paper reveals the growing importance of precipitation forecasts among Mzingwane communities, particularly the amount, timing, duration and distribution of rainfall. Rainfall was cited as the major cause of drought by 98 per cent of the respondents in the catchment. Whilst meteorological rainfall forecasts are available through various channels, they are not readily accessible to rural communities. Furthermore, they are not very reliable at local level. The paper shows that communities in the Mzingwane Catchment still regard local traditional knowledge forecasting as their primary source of weather forecasts. The paper finds that plant phenology is widely used by the local communities in the four districts for drought forecasting. Early and significant flowering of Mopane trees (Colophospermum mopane) from September to December has been identified to be one of the signals of poor rainfall season in respect to quantity and distribution and subsequent drought. Late and less significant flowering of Umtopi trees (Boscia albitrunca) from September to December also signals a poor rainfall season. Originality/value -The paper fulfils an identified need to study and document useful traditional drought indicators. Furthermore, the paper provides a platform for possible integration of traditional drought forecasting and meteorological forecasting and ensure sustainable rural livelihood development. The paper is useful to both meteorological researchers and resource-constrained communities in Mzingwane Catchment.

“What is a Sociologist Doing Here?” An Unconventional People-Centered Approach to Improve Warning Implementation in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

“…In Nicaragua, the communities of the subbasins of the Esteli and Coco Rivers monitor hand-made rain and river level gauges and use radio to communicate the data to the emergency management centers (Dávila 2016). Around the world, there are many examples of traditional and community-based warning systems for volcanoes (Donovan et al 2012 Source Compiled by the author based on data and information from Villagrán de León (2013, p. 80), Michoud et al (2013), Grasso (2014), and Dávila (2016) et al 2014), droughts (Chisadza et al 2013), tsunamis (Gaillard et al 2008), and malaria (Macherera and Chimbari 2016b). There are also surveys that identified regional and/or national warning systems for different hazards (Table 1).…”

Linkages between local knowledge drought forecasting indicators and scientific drought forecasting parameters in the Limpopo River Basin in Southern Africa

“…In Offon River basin in Ghana, farmers are able to predict well the onset of rains and plan their planting activities to coincide with the rains [7]. Findings from Zimbabwe suggest that some local indicators have predictive ability [25,28,3].…”

“…Appearance of certain birds, mating of certain animals, or the nature of flowering of certain plants are all important signals of changes in time and seasons that are well understood by traditional knowledge. It is these indicators that are either located on one's farm or near one's home that have been used as indicative objects in making decisions of livelihood significance by farmers [3]. Traditional knowledge is the basis for local level decisions in such areas as food production, education, natural resources management, agriculture and health as well as a host of other livelihood activities in rural areas [30].…”

Traditional prediction of drought under weather and climate uncertainty: analyzing the challenges and opportunities for small-scale farmers in Gaza province, southern region of Mozambique

“…Notwithstanding this, Ziervogel (2001) argued that as the interpretation of environmental indicators is a part of personal knowledge and experience, inconsistencies are expected, even within the same community. This stresses the urgent need to safeguard traditional knowledge which, despite the current challenges faced, continues to be the primary source of farmers' forecasts for farm-related decisions, especially considering that access to, and utilization of, scientific forecasting remains very limited in most rural areas (Chisadza et al 2013). Thus, although several factors might increase farmers' vulnerability to drought, Wongbusarakum and Loper (2011) contend that the lack of drought-related information and early warning systems are making farmers more vulnerable to its impact.…”