2013
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.12.020
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Using a microclimate model to evaluate impacts of climate change on sea turtles

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Cited by 60 publications
(49 citation statements)
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“…Female sea turtles lay eggs beneath sandy beaches in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, which may be vulnerable to the effects of increased nest temperature (Pike, 2014). Thermal inertia of the sand is likely to limit nest warming to a few degrees (Fuentes et al, 2011;Fuentes and Porter, 2013), but this level of warming could still push nest temperatures beyond important biological thresholds (e.g. the pivotal sex-determining temperature or the temperature at which embryonic development ceases or cell death occurs), underscoring a need to understand how populations will respond.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Female sea turtles lay eggs beneath sandy beaches in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, which may be vulnerable to the effects of increased nest temperature (Pike, 2014). Thermal inertia of the sand is likely to limit nest warming to a few degrees (Fuentes et al, 2011;Fuentes and Porter, 2013), but this level of warming could still push nest temperatures beyond important biological thresholds (e.g. the pivotal sex-determining temperature or the temperature at which embryonic development ceases or cell death occurs), underscoring a need to understand how populations will respond.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Notably, (1) flatback embryos on Cape York can survive mean temperatures almost 4°C above reported natural nest temperatures with little negative impact; (2) early in development, embryos can survive temperatures averaging >36°C for 48 h and ranging up to 39°C (briefly); (3) high-temperature incubation did not significantly influence hatchling body size; and (4) the pivotal sex-determining temperature (estimated to be ∼30.4°C) of the Jardine River nesting population is ∼0.9°C higher than temperate flatback nesting sites (Limpus, 1971;Hewavisenthi and Parmenter, 2000). In this region, green turtles (Chelonia mydas) could face the threat of nearcomplete feminisation of hatchlings by 2070 because climate change may push nest temperatures above the pivotal sexdetermining temperature towards the point at which only females are produced (Fuentes et al, 2010;Fuentes and Porter, 2013). Our data for flatback turtles suggests that the Crab Island nesting rookery (<10 km straight-line distance from our study site) and surrounds mainly produces male hatchlings (at least early in the nesting season), and that climate change may push the sex ratio towards parity.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Our study demonstrates the possibility of predicting fine‐scale ground temperature based on its correlations with topographical variables, along with high‐frequency weather data disseminated online. Whereas some previous models for predicting soil temperatures use an uncalibrated seasonal trend (Horton & Corkrey ), while others are process‐based and require extensive parameterization (Fuentes & Porter ), we believe that our use of statistical calibration for physically explicit variables gives a good combination of practicality and robustness, providing a tool for predicting soil surface temperatures across Europe at either open or tree‐covered sites, at arbitrarily fine spatial scales, for both monthly means and transient early‐afternoon temperatures.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…; Horton & Corkrey ) methods and call for a variety of inputs. These typically include data for air temperatures, topography, solar irradiation or correlates thereof, and sometimes also rainfall, cloud cover and wind speed (Fuentes & Porter ). Predictions are typically for mean or maximum temperatures over a period such as a day or month, at a specified soil depth.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The mechanistic model used by Mitchell et al (2008), known as Niche Mapper™ (Porter and Mitchell, 2006), has since been applied in other studies of the embryonic stages of reptiles, especially those with a focus on modelling sex ratios (e.g. Fuentes and Porter, 2013;Stubbs et al, 2014;Cavallo et al, 2015).…”
Section: Existing Decision Tools For Relocations Of Reptile Eggsmentioning
confidence: 99%