Using a new PDP modelling approach for land-use and land-cover change predictions: A case study in the Stubai Valley (Central Alps)

Fondevilla, Cristian; Colomer, M. Angels; Fillat, Federico; Tappeiner, Ulrike

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.11.016

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…In the Unteralptal valley the shrub cover increased by 18.7%, and the shrub cover by 32.6%, resulting in an increase in resistance to soil erosion. Abandonment is also the main factor explaining the regeneration of forests in the Austrian Alps, particularly in the altitudinal range 1500-2150 m (Fondevilla et al 2016).…”

Section: Cytisus Scoparius)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Woody plant encroachment following grazing abandonment in the subalpine belt: a case study in northern Spain

et al. 2017

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The montane and subalpine belts in European mountains were affected by intense land use/land cover changes during the 20th century. In the case of the subalpine belt, most European mountains were affected by complex deforestation processes from Neolithic times, leading to the expansion of summer grasslands to support grazing by transhumant sheep and goats flocks. This resulted in an altitudinal reduction of the tree line, and the occurrence of severe soil erosion and shallow landsliding. The intense livestock pressure over centuries explains why the landscape remained without major change until the middle of the 20th century. Since then, depopulation, land abandonment, and the disappearance of the transhumant system have resulted in a marked decline in livestock numbers, and subsequent encroachment of shrubs and trees in the subalpine belt. The Urbión Mountains (Iberian Range, northern Spain) provides one of the clearest examples in the Iberian Peninsula, where there was intense deforestation since the Neolithic period to enlarge the area of subalpine summer grasslands. The recent reversal of this situation in the last decades led to (i) a marked trend to dense forest, which resulted in an average 200 m altitudinal advance; and (ii) the spatial contraction of shrublands, which have been replaced by dense forest in the highest areas. Changes will continue in the future, possibly enhanced by global warming.

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Section: Cytisus Scoparius)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Woody plant encroachment following grazing abandonment in the subalpine belt: a case study in northern Spain

et al. 2017

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“…Flat and accessible areas are preferred for agricultural use [21], so the added cropland was concentrated around the surrounding cropland and the residential land with flat topography and convenient traffic conditions. The increased arable land also occurred in the southern part of Tekes County with suitable natural and socio-economic conditions for modern agriculture.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Each Scenario Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Predicting land use changes can assist in determining the extent of degradation and enabling the managers to control changes in the proper directions [16][17][18]. From a planning and management perspective, it is of great significance to have an explicit understanding of predicted land use change as well as the underlying drivers [19][20][21]. The processes and mechanisms of land use change are complex and largely influenced by natural and socio-economic driving factors [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Wang

Cai

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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Land use and land cover change have received considerable attention from global researchers in recent decades. The conflicts between different development strategies for land uses have become a problem that urgently needs to be solved, especially in those regions with a fragile ecological environment. The development of scenario simulations is essential in order to highlight possible alternative pathways for the future under the backgrounds of urbanization, economic growth and ecological protection. This study simulated land use changes for Tekes in 2020 with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model under a 'business as usual' scenario, cropland protection scenario, ecological security scenario, and artificial modification scenario. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of the land use types were explained well by the environment variables, and the selected models had a satisfactory accuracy in this study. The requirements and the patterns were quite different owing to the variation of the major objectives of the four scenarios. In addition to the constraint rules of the land use transformation, the hot point for land use change was its spatial coherency. Areas near to an existing land use type were more likely to transform to that type than those farther away. The increased cropland and urban land were mainly located around the current cropland and urban land while forests and grassland were more likely to occur in places with flat terrain and good hydrological conditions. The results could contribute to better insight into the relationships between land use changes and their driving factors and provide a scientific basis for regional management strategies and sustainable land use development.

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“…The CLUE family of models allows LULC changes to be visualized more easily, but under greater uncertainties, in that the models do not consider as many key factors as more recent models, such as the PDP (Fondevilla et al, 2016). The SPA-LUCC model (Schirpke et al, 2012) overcomes this limitation with a combination of both integrated visualization functionality and greater LULC model details, thereby supporting more realistic assessments of LULC changes.…”

Section: Gis-based Spatial Allocation Of Lulc Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially explicit simulation of land use/land cover changes: Current coverage and future prospects

Ren

Comber

et al. 2019

Earth-Science Reviews

152

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Using a new PDP modelling approach for land-use and land-cover change predictions: A case study in the Stubai Valley (Central Alps)

Abstract: El artículo seleccionado no se encuentra disponible por ahora a texto completo por no haber sido facilitado todavía por el investigador a cargo del archivo del mismo.

Cited by 16 publications

References 71 publications

Woody plant encroachment following grazing abandonment in the subalpine belt: a case study in northern Spain

Woody plant encroachment following grazing abandonment in the subalpine belt: a case study in northern Spain

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Spatially explicit simulation of land use/land cover changes: Current coverage and future prospects

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