Using AHP in determining the prior distributions on gas pipeline failures in a robust Bayesian approach

Cagno, Enrico; Caron, Franco; Mancini, Mauro; Ruggeri, Fabrizio

doi:10.1016/s0951-8320(99)00070-8

Cited by 99 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…To avoid this drawback, a reasonable and manageable number of criteria were contained in the model. Another alternative is the Bayesian inference [46], which works very well if opinions among the experts are strongly divergent, and different prior parameters can be used to test for robustness [47,48]. In this study, based on results from the literature and information gleaned from discussions with ten experts, who are authorities on eco-hydrology in arid desert areas and were unified in their feedback, the AHP method was chosen in this study, and a total of fourteen criteria were determined.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Stability of Revegetated Ecosystems in Sandy Areas: An Assessment and Prediction Index

Huang

Zhang

2015

Water

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Abstract:The stability and sustainability of revegetated ecosystems is a central topic in ecological research. In this study, long-term monitoring and focused research on vegetation, soil and soil moisture from 2006 to 2012 were used to develop a model for evaluating indices of ecosystem stability using the analytical hierarchy process method. The results demonstrated that rainfall (R), vegetation coverage (C), and surface soil moisture (S) were the three most influential factors among the 14 indicators considered in a revegetated desert area in the Tengger Desert, China. A stability index (SI) was defined as SI = VAR (R) × VAR (C)/VAR (S), and a comparative study was conducted to examine the stability index of the natural vegetation community. The SI was divided into three regimes: SI < 0.006 was stable, 0.006 ≤ SI < 0.015 was semi-stable, and 0.015 ≤ SI was unstable. The stable, semi-stable and unstable periods of revegetated ecosystems in our simulations were 191, 17 and 11 years, respectively, within the total modeling period of 219 years. These results indicated that the revegetated desert ecosystem would be stable in most years during the vegetation succession, and this study presents new ideas for future artificial vegetation management in arid desert regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Stability of Revegetated Ecosystems in Sandy Areas: An Assessment and Prediction Index

Huang

Zhang

2015

Water

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“…We consider the problem addressed in [1,2] about the replacement policy of low-pressure cast iron (CI) pipelines used in a metropolitan gas distribution network by the assessment of the rate of occurrence of gas escapes or leaks (denoted as failures) obtained through integration of historical data and knowledge of company experts. In the cited works, homogeneous subnetworks were identified and ranked according to their failure rates, using a methodology based on field data, experts' qualitative judgments and Bayesian inference; the failure rate was considered as the priority index for the replacement policy (of an entire subnetwork, rather than a single section).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since CI pipelines have a higher failure rate than other materials, even ten-times greater (see [2]), and cover more than a fourth of the whole network, the authors paid more attention to this material and studied its subnetworks in more detail. The low-pressure CI network consists of about 6000 different sections of pipelines whose lengths range from 3 to 250 m for a total of 320 km.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The goal would be to obtain disjoint non-dominated sets, implying that the subnetwork with the largest estimates (i.e., the non-dominated actions) has a worse failure rate than the others, regardless of the choice of the prior. The subnetworks would be ranked not according to the value of a unique estimate, like in [2], but considering if the non-dominated sets are overlapping or disjoint. Should all of the non-dominated sets be disjoint, then ranking would be obvious.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Robust Bayesian Approach to an Optimal Replacement Policy for Gas Pipelines

Arias-Nicolás

Ruggeri

et al. 2015

Entropy

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In the paper, we address Bayesian sensitivity issues when integrating experts' judgments with available historical data in a case study about strategies for the preventive maintenance of low-pressure cast iron pipelines in an urban gas distribution network. We are interested in replacement priorities, as determined by the failure rates of pipelines deployed under different conditions. We relax the assumptions, made in previous papers, about the prior distributions on the failure rates and study changes in replacement priorities under different choices of generalized moment-constrained classes of priors. We focus on the set of non-dominated actions, and among them, we propose the least sensitive action as the optimal choice to rank different classes of pipelines, providing a sound approach to the sensitivity problem. Moreover, we are also interested in determining which classes have a failure rate exceeding a given acceptable value, considered as the threshold determining no need for replacement. Graphical tools are introduced to help decision makers to determine if pipelines are to be replaced and the corresponding priorities.Entropy 2015, 17 3657

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“…There are literally different methods to assess risks in pipeline systems (Jo & Ahn, 2005;Henselwood & Phillips, 2006;Dziubnski et al, 2006;Cagno et al, 2000;Yuhua et al, 2005Sklavounos & Rigas, 2006Bartenev, 1996;Jo & Ahn, 2001). Pipeline systems play essential role on managing the gas distribution and risk assessment can help decision maker detect the high risk components and make an appropriate decisions to reduce or limit the risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy logic for pipelines risk assessment

Alidoosti¹,

Jamshidi²,

Yakhchali³

et al. 2012

MSL

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Pipelines systems are identified to be the safest way of transporting oil and natural gas. One of the most important aspects in developing pipeline systems is determining the potential risks that implementers may encounter. Therefore, risk analysis can determine critical risk items to allocate the limited resources and time. Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) is one of the best methodologies for assessing the security risks. However, the most challenging problem in this method is uncertainty. Therefore, fuzzy set theory is used to model the uncertainty. Thus, Fuzzy RAMCAP is introduced in order to risk analysis and management for pipeline systems. Finally, a notional example from pipeline systems is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed methodology.

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Using AHP in determining the prior distributions on gas pipeline failures in a robust Bayesian approach

Cited by 99 publications

References 5 publications

The Stability of Revegetated Ecosystems in Sandy Areas: An Assessment and Prediction Index

The Stability of Revegetated Ecosystems in Sandy Areas: An Assessment and Prediction Index

A Robust Bayesian Approach to an Optimal Replacement Policy for Gas Pipelines

Fuzzy logic for pipelines risk assessment

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