Using Bayesian Networks to Estimate the Effectiveness of Innovative Projects

Abstract

The paper proposes an application of Bayesian methodology to analyze the attachment effectiveness in the national economy. The methods for creation the BNs structure, their parametric learning, validation, and scenario analysis are examined. The research results show that at the highest level of capital investments, the financial activity result will be 48% more active, while the net profit indicator will rise by 8%. To make the profitability equal 100%, it is desirable for us to decrease the payback term by 15% and increase the level of net profit by 9%. This study can be useful for investors, managers, economists, financiers and other investment professionals. Keywords: Innovative projects• Attachment effectiveness • Bayesian networks • Validation • scenario analysis "What-if"