1 that cumulative exposure to elevated non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol is a strong independent risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) risk is a highly important finding, one that, if confirmed, provides strong evidence in support of previous genetic studies. 2 However, the suggestion that their results call into question a cardiovascular risk-based approach such as that proposed in the new American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines is in error. Their study simply suggests that we can better estimate our patient's cardiovascular risk if we can accurately assess their cumulative non-HDL cholesterol in real-world clinical practice. The authors could help make their findings clinically actionable by conducting reliability analyses on their data (Do we need 3 measures over 5 years or annual measures over a decade to reliability estimate a patient's cumulative non-HDL cholesterol?). This information, combined with the associated hazard ratio for how this increases or decreases a patient's estimated cardiovascular risk obtained by current risk calculators, would be a major advance in guideline primary cardiovascular prevention, not just for lipid therapies.
3-5However, it is the relative impact of any risk factor that is important, not the average risk of all people with that risk factor.
3Even if being in the top cumulative non-HDL cholesterol risk category doubles the estimated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score on average, this is still not important for the 55-year-old woman with a 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimate of 1% (her 10-year risk is still only ≈2%).4 By concentrating on the average risk of all those 55 years of age with an elevated non-HDL cholesterol, the authors averaged the cardiovascular risk of the above woman with someone whose risk doubled from 20% to 40%, and mean results are highly susceptible to extreme values. The authors' findings do not provide any evidence against statin treatment being primarily guided by the best estimate of a person's overall cardiovascular risk; they only provide evidence that we can estimate cardiovascular risk better. However, finding heterogeneity in the relative risk reduction (RRR) of statin in a patient's cumulative non-HDL cholesterol, which was not examined in the authors' study, would challenge the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association risk-based approach. 4,5 Although all currently available clinical trial evidence suggests that the RRR of a statin does not vary by a person's baseline low-density lipoprotein level (ie, RRR is the same whether LDL is 200 or 100 mg/dL), if the RRR of a statin is greater in those with higher versus lower cumulative non-HDL cholesterol, that would necessitate a change to a full benefit-based tailored treatment approach in which both overall cardiovascular risk and heterogeneity in the RRR of the treatment must be considered.