Background
Asthma exacerbations are a common cause of critical illness in children.
Objective
To determine factors associated with exacerbations in children with persistent asthma.
Methods
Regression modeling was used to identify historical, phenotypic, treatment, and time-dependent factors associated with the occurrence of exacerbations, defined by need for oral corticosteroids, emergency or hospital care in the 48-week Pediatric Asthma Controller Trial (PACT) study. Children aged 6–14 with mild to moderate persistent asthma were randomized to receive either fluticasone propionate 100 mcg BID (FP monotherapy), combination fluticasone 100 mcg AM and salmeterol BID, or montelukast 5 mg once daily.
Results
Of the 285 participants randomized, 48% had 231 exacerbations. Using a multivariate analysis, which included numerous demographic, pulmonary, and inflammatory parameters, only a history of an asthma exacerbation requiring a systemic corticosteroid in the past year (odds ratio 2.10, p<0.001) was associated with a subsequent exacerbation during the trial. During the trial, treatment with montelukast vs. FP monotherapy (OR 2.00, p=0.005), season (spring, fall, or winter vs. summer, p=<0.001), and average seasonal 5% reduction in AM peak expiratory flow (PEF) (OR 1.21, p=0.01) were each associated with exacerbations. Changes in worsening of symptoms, beta-agonist use, and low PEF track together before an exacerbation, but have poor positive predictive value of exacerbation.
Conclusion
Children with mild to moderate persistent asthma with prior exacerbations are more likely to have a repeat exacerbation despite controller treatment. Inhaled corticosteroids are superior to montelukast at modifying the exacerbation risk. Available physiologic measures and biomarkers, and diary card tracking are not reliable predictors of asthma exacerbations.