Using catastrophe theory to describe railway system safety and discuss system risk concept

Wang, Yangpeng; Weidmann, Ulrich; Hua-shen, Wang

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2016.08.026

Cited by 47 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Furthermore, Hallowell and Gambatese (2009) proposed an activity-based total risk quantification of concrete formwork in their research [28]. The authors utilized a risk quantification method that was proffered formerly by Jannadi and Almishari (2003) and Baradan and Usmen (2006) [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27]. They accepted accident frequency as an accident probability parameter.…”

Section: Literature Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method For Determination of Accident Probability in Construction Industry

Bilir

Gürcanlı

2018

Teknik Dergi

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Safety issues within the construction industry have been an area of concern in almost every country. In this paper, an objective and quantitative accident probability calculation approach is proposed using 623 actual construction accidents that resulted in 681 casualties between the years 2000 and 2013. Of these accidents, the first five account for 84.1% of all fatalities and 85.4% of all injuries. In total, five construction jobs (excavation, reinforced concrete work, masonry, plastering and painting, and roof work) were the focus of the study, as they account for 70.8% of all occurrences. Probability values were calculated by using the Poisson distribution, in which accident rates and exposure values were used as distribution parameters. In an industry where accidents are recorded according to non-specific standards, it is very difficult to represent the probability of accidents within a known distribution model. The proposed approach in this paper provides an objective method to obtain probabilities by using the Poisson distribution for construction accidents.

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Section: Literature Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method For Determination of Accident Probability in Construction Industry

Bilir

Gürcanlı

2018

Teknik Dergi

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“…Marsh & Bearfield [13] described a method of modelling organizational causes of accidents, using Bayesian Networks. Y. Wang et al [14] applied the cusp catastrophe model to describe the dynamic changing process of railway system safety.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Railway Transport Safety in Bangladesh: A Before-After Study of COVID-19 Case

Huq¹,

Tasin²,

Jannat³

2021

International Conference on Civil, Structural and Transportation Engineering

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The COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh is part of the global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019, caused by extreme acute respiratory syndrome, coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In March 2020, the virus was reported as having spread to Bangladesh and the Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), announced the first 3 (three) identified cases on 8 March 2020. In order to protect the population and to prevent the outbreak of novel coronavirus-2, the government implemented non-therapeutic measures such as declared "lockdown" throughout the nation from March 26, 2020 to May 30, 2020 and prepared some necessary steps to spread awareness to keep this syndrome away from them as Bangladesh being the second most affected country in South Asia, after India. Due to transport restrictions put in place to mitigate the pandemic, commercial road transport, both passenger and goods, has been severely impacted by COVID-19 in Bangladesh. The COVID-19 also contributed to the accident patterns and casualties of railway related accidents. An attempt has been made in this study to demonstrate the before-after effect of COVID-19 pandemic to highlight the variation in the perspective of railway transportation accidents. A comprehensive descriptive analysis has been conducted to find the major factors contributed to the railway accidents. The study also includes hotspot analysis using ArcGIS. The study has been conducted utilizing two years (2019-2020) of daily newspaper-based data which is classified by two categories: 299 days (May 14, 2019 to March 7, 2020) before and 299 days (March 8, 2020 to December 31, 2020 after the first case of COVID-19 was reported on March 8 in Bangladesh. The results reveal that railway accidents are significantly declining due to this pandemic situation. Finally, based on the findings, probable countermeasures to the guidelines for the prevention of certain incidents have been discussed with recommendations.

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“…A catastrophe evaluation method quantifies the relative importance of indices according to the internal contradictions and mechanisms in normalization equations of the system, and reduces the subjective factors in the evaluation process effectively. The method has been widely used in several research fields, including water resources assessment [25,26], mapping floods susceptibility [27], safety analysis of railway systems [28], and quantitative analysis of a non-equilibrium phase transition process [29].…”

Section: Common Catastrophe Evaluation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method for Fast Evaluation of Potential Consequences of Dam Breach

Jiao

Sun

et al. 2019

Water

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Dam breach has catastrophic consequences for human lives and economy. In previous studies, empirical models are often, to a limited extent, due to the inadequacy of historical dam breach events. Physical models, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods, are not suitable for fast analysis of a large number of dams due to the complexities of many key parameters. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for fast evaluation of potential consequences of dam breach. Eight main indices, i.e., capacity of reservoir (C R ), dam height (H D ), population at risk (P R ), economy at risk (E R ), understanding of dam breach (U B ), industry type (T I ), warning time (T W ), and building vulnerability (V B ), are selected to establish an evaluation index system. A catastrophe evaluation method is introduced to establish an evaluation model for potential consequences of dam breach based on the indices which are divided into five grades according to the relevant standards and guidelines. Validation of the method by twelve historical dam breach events shows a good accuracy. The method is applied to evaluate potential consequences of dam breach of Jiangang Reservoir in Henan Province, China. It is estimated that loss of life in the worst scenario is between that of Hengjiang Reservoir and that of Shimantan Reservoir dam breach, of which fatalities are 941 and 2717, respectively, showing that risk management measures should be taken to reduce the risk of potential loss of life.August 2018. Consequently, the risk consequences of dam breach have always attracted the attention of researchers.Originally, empirical models, which are based on historical events, were established to evaluate consequences of dam breach. Brown and Graham (1988) provided a conceptual model of variables influencing the LOL from dam failure and a method for predicting LOL based on the size of the population at risk (P R ) from failure and the amount of warning time (T W ) available for that population [7]. DeKay and McClelland (1993) proposed an expression for LOL in terms of warning time (T W ) and population at risk (P R ). The forcefulness of the floods was derived from the historical records of dam breach and flash flood cases via logistic regression [8]. These studies are often, to a limited extent, based on empirical data of historical flood events, most of which are of low availability, resulting in low accuracy in most applications.Thereafter, multiple physical models were established, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods. Assaf and Hartford (2002) developed a virtual reality approach (BC Hydro's Life Safety Model (LSM)) to deal with the problems of failure consequence analysis and emergency planning that are not amenable to resolution through existing analysis techniques, which is undergoing continued development [9]. Aboelata and Bowles (2008) demonstrated the deterministic uncertainty modes of calculation model of LOL named LIFESim, which was sponsored by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Australian National...

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Using catastrophe theory to describe railway system safety and discuss system risk concept

Cited by 47 publications

References 12 publications

A Method For Determination of Accident Probability in Construction Industry

A Method For Determination of Accident Probability in Construction Industry

Assessment of Railway Transport Safety in Bangladesh: A Before-After Study of COVID-19 Case

A Method for Fast Evaluation of Potential Consequences of Dam Breach

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