Using climate models to predict extreme rainfall trend in Yanhe riverbasin, China

Abstract

Climate model is an effective medium to study climate system and climate change. Its simulation results are essentially a crucial data basis for climate prediction and climate change risk assessment. With the acceleration of global warming, the surface ecological environment, hydrological dynamic cycle process, social and economic development are all affected thereupon, resulting in certain influence on the production and life of human beings. In this regard, this paper conducts a study on extreme precipitation events of different climate models with Yanhe River Basin as the study area. The results show that: 1. Yanhe River Basin is a sensitive area to climate change. In the future, the precipitation in this area, for a long time will not increase obviously, but fluctuate greatly; 2. The temporal and spatial difference of extreme precipitation events in the study area is significant. From 2000 to 2050, the interdecadal fluctuation of extreme precipitation events in the study area is significant. In the future, the area with the largest volume of precipitation above 12mm will be concentrated in the southeast part of the study area, followed by the western boundary area; 3. There are few areas with precipitation above 50mm in the Yanhe River Basin, and the occurrence frequency has decreased significantly; 4. The simulation results of different climate models are different. Alao, pursuant to the data analysis results, different models have certain differences in the spatial simulation of extreme precipitation. It is speculated that the terrain factors and Monsoon Simulation factors may affect the simulation results of extreme precipitation events.