Using Community College Prior Academic Performance to Predict Re-Enrollment at a Four-Year Online University

Abstract

Students' re-enrollment in the subsequent semester after their first semester at a four-year institution is a strong predictor of retention and graduation. This is especially true for students who transfer from a community college to a four-year institution because of the many external or non-academic factors influencing a student's decision to re-enroll. This research study examines student learner characteristics and course-taking behaviors at the community college and first-term GPA at a four-year institution to predict the likelihood of re-enrollment for 8,200 students from two community colleges who transferred to an online, public, four-year institution. The logistic regression models showed that gender, age, and first-term GPA at the four-year institution were significant predictors of re-enrollment. These findings contribute to the growing literature on transfer students and may provide researchers and practitioners a greater understanding of how community college factors influence the progression and success for transfer students at four-year institutions.

Predictors of Economically Disadvantaged Vertical Transfer Students' Academic Performance and Retention: A Scoping Review

“…Academic performance is a robust predictor of degree attainment. A one-point increase in college GPA has been found to increase the likelihood of earning a bachelor's degree by 32% (Cabrera et al, 2003) and GPA in the first semester posttransfer is one of the strongest predictors of persistence at the 4-year college (Nadasen & List, 2016). Thus, examining the academic performance of economically disadvantaged vertical transfer students is crucial for understanding outcomes for this population.…”

Predictors of Academic Achievement in Blended Learning: the Case of Data Science Minor

“…Previous educational achievement (GPA) is one of the most influential predictors of a student's academic achievement on a given course [3], [4], because it may reflect both the skills student obtained during previous courses and the intention and motivation to succeed in the future courses [7]. GPA also shows students' level of adaptation to the university's academic culture.…”

Analytics Research and Case Studies in Online Learning

“…Results indicate that the new constructs and the new item forms and analytics that were employed, can be used in a large-scale digital environment. Nadasen and List (2016), in their piece entitled, "Using Community College prior Academic Performance to Predict Re-enrollment at a Four-Year Online University," provide readers with a case study from a large public online university where analytics were used to predict student success of transfer students. The research study examines student learner characteristics, course-taking behaviors from prior community colleges attended, and first-term GPA at a four-year institution to predict the likelihood of re-enrollment for 8,200 students.…”