Using Empirical Research and Computational Modeling to Predict Operator Response to Unexpected Events

Abstract

This paper describes an effort to model and predict astronaut performance during sudden workload transitions in long duration missions. Our approach to the work is heavily based on empirical research. We have performed a set of meta-analyses 1) to identify the quantitative effects of poor sleep on task accuracy and task completion time, and 2) to develop a model of operator task selection during multitasking. We are currently developing a model, based on a literature review, to predict the effects of automation design factors on operator task performance. This paper gives an overview of the project, presents the overall model of operator performance during a workload transition, and describes the empirical and theoretical underpinnings of a model that predicts the effects of automation design on operator performance.

The effects of automation-induced complacency on fault diagnosis and management performance in process control

“…This manifestation is critical for populating parameters and effect sizes within the CODDMAN model (Sebok et al, 2014). This was done in two ways: (1) by examining this first failure effect after a series of correctly functioning automation advisories; and (2) by attempting to induce more or less complacency (versus engagement) by varying instructions.…”

Integrating human performance measures into space operations: Beyond our scheduling capabilities?

“…Modeling task performance cannot be agnostic to system effects. Performance is affected by the interface used (e.g., its saliency & transparency), reliability, and automation type [13], not to mention the effectiveness of training for that activity and associated procedures' design. Some tasks might be done more efficiently earlier in the day, necessitating modeling them as a function of timeof-day [15].…”

Effects of Communication Lag in Long Duration Space Flight Missions

“…During this time, mission control has also solved X, and begins communicating this to the space crew at the same time the space crew is communicating that they solved that problem and have uncovered two additional problems. This incongruence in the state of the problem-model and MTS coordination could have devastating effects in offnominal events (Sebok, Wickens, Clegg, & Sargent, 2014).…”