For the same reservoir geological model, different simulation models could be obtained through history match calibration by different engineers. In other words, there are certain uncertainties within the calibrated simulation models. So how to reduce the uncertainty during history matching is still a problem. This paper presents how to quantify the waterflooding uncertainty and reasonably forecast waterflooding performance through reservoir simulation for a large multi-layered sandstone reservoir in Middle East.
Based on the results of detailed geological characterization, dynamic description and parameter uncertainty analysis, three fine geological models are built, which stand for upside model, expected model and downside model. Then parameter sensitivity on waterflooding performance is conducted based on sector model simulation, and waterflooding development strategies are also optimized. The results are firstly applied for the three full field model calibration by reservoir history matching. After that the calibration models are used for waterflooding performance forecast and the performance uncertainty are also quantified.
Take a large multi-layered sandstone reservoir in Middle East as an example. The MU reservoir is still under primary depletion with only 5% recovery currently, and waterflooding is urgent. Firstly, sector models are used for parameter sensitivity analysis and development strategy optimization. Then based on parameter sensitivity analysis results, the three full-field model are all calibrated with good history match. And different model calibration need different parameter adjustment, such as downside model has stronger aquifer support than that of upside model and expected model because of the poorer connectivity. So different models show different characteristics, such as most of west-south flank of MU reservoir are flooded for Downside model, while only some local area and some zones are water flooded for Expected and Upside model. Then waterflooding performance of different development plans are forecasted and compared based on the optimum development strategies and calibrated models. Furthermore, the performance uncertainty are quantified based on the three models.
This paper offers a methodology and a case study of reservoir simulation history matching in order to reduce uncertainty and better waterflooding performance forecast for a large sandstone reservoir in Middle East. Comparison of the three models can help to better understand the reservoir. And the results are valuable for the following development options decision making. It also provides a reference for performance forecast and uncertainty analysis of similar reservoirs.