Using MaxEnt modeling to predict the potential distribution of the endemic plant Rosa arabica Crép. in Egypt

Abdelaal, Mohamed A.; Fois, Mauro; Fenu, Giuseppe; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.01.003

Cited by 219 publications

(143 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…An average of AUC = 0.95 was achieved, and considering models with "excellent" predictive performance (AUC = 0.914-0.985), these are equal to or more accurate than those reported in the literature for plant species such as Paeonia veitchii (0.958) [55], Paeonia ostii (0.960) [54], Daphne mucronata (0.95) [87], Rosa arabica (0.968 ± 0.009) [20], Aristolochia gigantea (0.924) [88], Justicia adhatoda (0.923) [57], Garcinia indica (mean 0.959 ± 0.023) [89], Euphorbia antisyphilitica (0.920 ± 0.039) [90], Abies pindrow (0.970 ± 0.019), and Betula utilis (0.984 ± 0.008) [28]. Even the "good" performance of C. montana (AUC = 0.868) is equal to or more accurate than those of Quercus sp.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…In this study, we established the current and potential distribution of species using occurrence data through a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model [14]. MaxEnt has been widely applied to studies of flora conservation [15], fauna [16,17], management of endangered species [18,19], conservation of endemic species [20], and invasive species control [21,22], as well as in forestry and agricultural zoning [12,23] [24] from local to global scales, allowing the development of "species distribution" maps and, finally, the estimation of a "suitability index" [25] for the Peruvian Amazon region. Though a few studies have been done over the Amazon region using MaxEnt models for evapotranspiration estimation [26], fire probability distribution [27], infrastructure expansion [24], and conservation of freshwater turtles [11], no such studies have been conducted for species distribution and its spatial modeling, which are the prime focuses of all conservation and restoration policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Distribution Models of Timber Species for Forest Conservation and Restoration in the Andean-Amazonian Landscape, North of Peru

et al. 2020

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The Andean-Amazonian landscape has been universally recognized for its wide biodiversity, and is considered as global repository of ecosystem services. However, the severe loss of forest cover and rapid reduction of the timber species seriously threaten this ecosystem and biodiversity. In this study, we have modeled the distribution of the ten most exploited timber forest species in Amazonas (Peru) to identify priority areas for forest conservation and restoration. Statistical and cartographic protocols were applied with 4454 species records and 26 environmental variables using a Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt). The result showed that the altitudinal variable was the main regulatory factor that significantly controls the distribution of the species. We found that nine species are distributed below 1000 m above sea level (a.s.l.), except Cedrela montana, which was distributed above 1500 m a.s.l., covering 40.68%. Eight of 10 species can coexist, and the species with the highest percentage of potential restoration area is Cedrela montana (14.57% from Amazonas). However, less than 1.33% of the Amazon has a potential distribution of some species and is protected under some category of conservation. Our study will contribute as a tool for the sustainable management of forests and will provide geographic information to complement forest restoration and conservation plans.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution Models of Timber Species for Forest Conservation and Restoration in the Andean-Amazonian Landscape, North of Peru

et al. 2020

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“…Climate change will alter environmental conditions in many localities such that they are no longer idealor survivablefor some species that now inhabit them. The predicted suitable range for many species, including medicinal plants, will narrow or move substantially following expected climate changes [34][35][36][37][38][39], though other species will enjoy expansions of potential range. Distributions of many organisms are already shifting rapidly towards higher latitudes or elevations [40][41][42], which increases competitive pressure on existing species in these ranges.…”

Section: Decreased Availability and Extinction Of Populationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Medicinal plants will not be exempt from these effects. Examples where highly suitable habitat for a given species will clearly decrease receive the most attention (e.g., [36,39]), but sometimes the situation is more complex. For example, ecological niche modeling (ENM) by You et al [37] predicted that the geographic range of Rhodiola quadrifida will contract, but the potential ranges of other Rhodiola species will expand.…”

Section: Decreased Availability and Extinction Of Populationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientistsʼ Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants

et al. 2019

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The recent publication of a World Scientistsʼ Warning to Humanity highlighted the fact that climate change, absent strenuous mitigation or adaptation efforts, will have profound negative effects for humanity and other species, affecting numerous aspects of life. In this paper, we call attention to one of these aspects, the effects of climate change on medicinal plants. These plants provide many benefits for human health, particularly in communities where Western medicine is unavailable. As for other species, their populations may be threatened by changing temperature and precipitation regimes, disruption of commensal relationships, and increases in pests and pathogens, combined with anthropogenic habitat fragmentation that impedes migration. Additionally, medicinal species are often harvested unsustainably, and this combination of pressures may push many populations to extinction. A second issue is that some species may respond to increased environmental stresses not only with declines in biomass production but with changes in chemical content, potentially affecting quality or even safety of medicinal products. We therefore recommend actions including conservation and local cultivation of valued plants, sustainability training for harvesters and certification of commercial material, preservation of traditional knowledge, and programs to monitor raw material quality in addition to, of course, efforts to mitigate climate change.

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“…This study aims to find suitable habitat conditions for Iraqi amphibians under climate change using SDMs. These conditions are of course determined by both biotic and abiotic factors (Wiens 2011;Wisz et al 2013), but abiotic conditions are known to be important (Abdelaala et al 2019). A set of abiotic environmental variables are used to predict habitat suitability, both currently and in the future under climate change using two emission-scenario pathways of the 5 th IPCC assessment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential habitat suitability of Iraqi amphibians under climate change

Kaky

2020

Biodiversitas

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Abstract. Kaky E. 2020. Potential habitat suitability of Iraqi amphibians under climate change. Biodiversitas 21: 731-742. Biodiversity management and conservation planning are two techniques for reducing the rate of biodiversity loss, especially under the effect of climate change. Here 289 records of five species of amphibians from Iraq and seven environmental variables were used with MaxEnt to predict potential habitat suitability for each species under current and future conditions, using the 5th IPCC assessment (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 for the year 2050). The models suggest that annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter are the main factors that shape the distributions of these species. The estimated current habitat suitability was closely similar to that for 2050 under both scenarios, with a high niche overlap between them for all species. Among species, there were low niche overlaps between the frogs Bufo viridis, Hyla savignyi and Rana ridibunda, and also between the salamanders Neurergus crocatus and Neurergus microspilotus. Future sampling should focus on areas not currently covered by records to reduce bias. The results are a vital first step in long-term conservation planning for these species. Via sharing these results with decision-makers and stakeholders a crucial conservation actions need to increase Iraqi Protected Areas to avoid losing biodiversity in Iraq especially the unique populations and threaten species.

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Using MaxEnt modeling to predict the potential distribution of the endemic plant Rosa arabica Crép. in Egypt

Cited by 219 publications

References 51 publications

Distribution Models of Timber Species for Forest Conservation and Restoration in the Andean-Amazonian Landscape, North of Peru

Distribution Models of Timber Species for Forest Conservation and Restoration in the Andean-Amazonian Landscape, North of Peru

Scientistsʼ Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants

Potential habitat suitability of Iraqi amphibians under climate change

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