Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

Abstract

Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. This study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies to the spatial domain to assess the future flood risks and the cost and benefit of three adaptation measures for four types of buildings in Shanghai. Real options analysis (ROA) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) were integrated to develop a dynamic adaptation pathway and identify robust adaptation options. The results show that: (1) Sea level rise and land subsidence will significantly exacerbate the flood risks in Shanghai; (2) Among the three flood control measures, wet-floodproofing has the best economic performance in terms of both the net present value and the benefit/cost ratio, followed by dry-floodproofing, and elevation; (3) Dry-floodproofing can be used at the beginning of the future period (2030–2100), and it can be replaced by wet-floodproofing in 2035–2042; the elevation measure also shows good performance at the beginning of implementation, but its performance will decline after 2041–2045; (4) The combined strategy of dry- and wet-floodproofing in 2044–2046 and a hybrid strategy combining the three measures should be the optimal solution for reducing the flood risks in 2047–2051. The methodology developed in this study can provide insights for coastal cities to formulate cost-effective and feasible adaptation strategies in a deeply uncertain future.

National assessment of extreme sea-level driven inundation under rising sea levels

“…Ground surface elevation data can represent vertical errors to centimeter-scale over horizontal resolutions of a few meters. Relatively low errors mean LIDAR DEMs are often used for high-resolution ESL inundation investigations that inform local risk analysis or adaption planning (e.g., Thompson et al, 2019;Habel et al, 2020;Hague et al, 2020;Anderson et al, 2021;Stephens et al, 2021), including trigger determination for future decision points on adaptation actions and pathways (Aerts et al, 2018;Stephens et al, 2018a;Ramm et al, 2018;Shan et al, 2022). LIDAR availability is growing worldwide though data collection and processing is often cost prohibitive and acquired where financially viable for institutions at sub-national scales (Gesch, 2018).…”

What We Have Learned about the Characteristics and Differences of Disaster Information Behavior in Social Media—A Case Study of the 7.20 Henan Heavy Rain Flood Disaster

“…(1) As shown in Figure 2a, the information behavior composite index has small variations and maintains a stable trend during the latent phase of information behavior (12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19). When compared to the precipitation series, this phase is in the first precipitation process, with precipitation occurring in some areas with relatively small rain and intensity, which has not evolved into a disaster in the social system, so there is not a great deal of social concern.…”

“…The existing case studies have been undertaken on the topic of integrated disaster risk governance under the influence of climate change from various angles, such as risk identification, risk assessment, risk prevention, and control measures (engineering technology measures, infrastructure development, government organization construction, etc.) [11][12][13][14]. Additionally, several studies have produced unique viewpoints on how to approach integrated disaster-risk prevention and management by integrating human behavior in social-ecological systems [15,16].…”

Rainfall, Wind Speed, and Temperature Forecast Using Triple Exponential Smoothing and Gradient Descent

“…Flood forecasting is essential to flood management, as there is no more practical measure of prevention or defense [1,2]. A flood forecasting and forecasting system can be developed as a combination of various elements in an integrated flood analysis system [2][3][4][5]. The hope is that flood forecasting in the form of a flood susceptibility map can minimize the impact or consequences of flooding.…”