Using neighborhood characteristics to predict vacancy types: Comparing multi-scale conditions surrounding existing vacant lots

Abstract

Vacant and abandoned land can be public eyesores that can potentially result in neighborhood distress in the long term. In some cases, the contextual conditions of a neighborhood have been shown to have more of a negative effect on communities than the vacant property itself. Maximum opportunities to actually reuse vacant and abandoned land is known to primarily exist in cases where the surrounding area has locational benefits or when local economic conditions are hopeful. This study examines and compares neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics around vacant lots in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, to identify spatial heterogeneity within vacancy types and neighborhood characteristics. Specifically, we examine 1) if the socioeconomic characteristics of a neighborhood can predict existing vacant lots and 2) what neighborhood characteristics are associated with certain vacant lot types. Three logistic regressions were tested with different buffers around each vacant lot, and a total of eighteen regressions were performed to capture the effects on six vacancy types. Results suggest that there are various types of vacancies interacting differently at the neighborhood scale, and that a large-scale neighborhood context matters when predicting vacancy types. The results also indicate three salient points. First, minority populations are a strong predictor of residential and commercial vacancies. Second, high-income areas tend to predict vacancies with potential investment opportunities or vacancies as a part of an existing park or recreational system. Third, vacant properties designated for institutional land uses tend to be found in lower-income areas, yet, not necessarily in areas with high minority populations. Managing and repurposing vacant and abandoned land should be handled more progressively with a better understanding of the socioeconomic characteristics of neighborhoods. Further, examining vacancy types by community can be a way to diagnose potential neighborhood risks associated with vacant and abandoned land.

Green Infrastructure and Urban Vacancies: Land Cover and Natural Environment as Predictors of Vacant Land in Austin, Texas

“…We also included variables representing the socioeconomic characteristics of the census tracts that could be associated with urban vacancies. Urban vacancies are known to be associated with neighborhood distress in marginalized areas [23]. Studies have indicated that there are different levels of land vacancies based on the neighborhood's socioeconomic characteristics [4,23,30,31].…”

“…Urban vacancies are known to be associated with neighborhood distress in marginalized areas [23]. Studies have indicated that there are different levels of land vacancies based on the neighborhood's socioeconomic characteristics [4,23,30,31]. To address this, we included household income, property values, poverty, and minority status to capture the socioeconomic status using the 2019 American Community Survey (2015-2019 5-year estimates) from the Census Bureau [32], which had small missing values compared with the 2021 census data.…”

“…Even with a higher level of green space, the health benefits could be low or minimal for areas with low socioeconomic status [20,21]. Additionally, the distribution of vacant properties across the city may not be homogeneous due to the types of vacancy associated with investment activities, land uses, and ownerships [22,23]. Due to the unequal level of resources and capital available to communities with low socioeconomic status, some communities might have more greenery available through ecological resources provided from vacant properties while may not have those resources even with a massive vacant land.…”