Microbial pollution at ocean beaches is a global public health problem that can be exacerbated by excessive rainfall, particularly at beaches adjacent to urban areas. Rain is acknowledged as a predictive factor of
Enterococcus
levels at NJ beaches, but to date no study has explicitly examined the link. Here, five beaches (156 observations) in Monmouth County, NJ, with storm drain outflows present were sampled for
Enterococcus
and water quality during dry and wet periods. Hypotheses included (1) beaches differ in
Enterococcus
levels, (2)
Enterococcus
is present year-round, and (3)
Enterococcus
exceedances could be modeled based on environmental parameters. Beaches showed significantly different median
Enterococcus
levels, with site SEA2 (Neptune Blvd. in Deal, NJ) lower than others and site SEA4 (South Bath Ave. in Long Branch, NJ) higher than the other sites. Elevated
Enterococcus
levels were detected at water temperatures from 6.5 to 22.2 °C. Multiple linear regression models identified rainfall (+), water temperature (+), and water level (−) as related to
Enterococcus
concentrations levels at these beaches. For the purpose of simulating the efficacy of different monitoring strategies, a hindcast model of
Enterococcus
abundance based on historic rainfall, water temperature, and water level data was produced. Results indicated that once-per-week sampling detected ~14% (e.g., 1/7) exceedance events, while sampling during summer alone detected ~ 50% of annual exceedance events. Models of
Enterococcus
exceedance based on readily available environmental time series have the potential to supplement and improve
Enterococcus
monitoring at NJ beaches.