Using reverse-time egg transport analysis for predicting Asian carp spawning grounds in the Illinois River

Zhu, Zhenduo; Soong, David T.; Garcia, Tatiana; Behrouz, Mina Shahed; Butler, Steven E.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Diana, Matthew J.; Duncker, James J.; Wahl, David H.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.06.003

Cited by 22 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…However, the distribution of early generation hybrids does lead us to hypothesise that these individuals may either be produced at the invasion front or be moving to the invasion front. Even though the production of early generation hybrids may be more likely to occur when both parental species are at low densities (Scribner et al, ), it appears unlikely that the early generation hybrids we observed toward the invasion front originated in those areas because bigheaded carp reproduction at the invasion front (Dresden Island Pool) has not been observed and may be limited in other upper river pools (Stainbrook, Dettmers, & Trudeau, ; Zhu et al, ). If reproduction is successful near the invasion front, the production of early generation hybrids at the invasion front may help the population to overcome Allee effects (Deredec & Courchamp, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Dresden Island Pool, the location of their current invasion front (and lowest abundance), is c. 76 river km (rkm) from Lake Michigan via a canal system and much effort is currently placed on preventing the invasion of bigheaded carps into the Laurentian Great Lakes (ACRCC, ). Several factors have contributed to the observed density gradient including: (1) removal of individuals near the invasion front (ACRCC, ); (2) limited reproduction in the upper Illinois River and no detected reproduction in Dresden Island Pool (ACRCC, ; Zhu et al, ); (3) dams inhibiting the upstream dispersal of individuals (Coulter, Brey, et al, ; Lubejko et al, ); and (4) a possible lack of habitat suitability (Koel & Sparks, ). Due to their possible negative effects on Great Lakes ecology and economy, bigheaded carp upstream movements in the Illinois River have been monitored with acoustic telemetry since 2012 and individuals tagged from 2013 through 2015 have been evaluated to determine their hybrid status resulting in the opportunity to examine how the movements of hybrid individuals compare to silver carp and bighead carp.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Early generation hybrids may drive range expansion of two invasive fishes

Coulter

Brey

Lamer³

et al. 2019

Freshwater Biology

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Introgressive hybridisation between two invasive species has the potential to contribute to their invasion success and provide genetic resiliency to rapidly adapt to new environments. Additionally, differences in the behaviour of hybrids may lead to deleterious ecosystem effects that compound any negative impacts of the invading parental species. Invasive silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) provide an opportunity to evaluate how hybridisation may influence the behaviour, dispersal, and spread of an invasive species introgressive complex. In order to investigate the role hybrids may have in the invasion ecology of bigheaded carps, we examined the distribution, movements, and environmental cues for movement of two invasive fishes and their hybrids in the Illinois River (U.S.A.). Early generation hybrids (e.g. F1,F2, and first‐generation backcross individuals) composed a greater proportion of the population at the invasion front where abundances of bigheaded carp were low. A greater proportion of early hybrids passed through dams upstream towards the invasion front than did other hybrids and parental species. The movements and environmental cues for movement of late‐generation backcrosses (more genetically similar to parental genotype) were not different from the parental species with which they shared the most alleles. Although the direction of the relationship between movement and environment was sometimes different for the parental species and associated advanced generation hybrids, these results indicate that management for parental species will also affect most hybrids. Although early generation hybrids are rare, our results indicate they may disperse towards low‐density population zones (i.e. invasion fronts) or are produced at greater frequency in low‐density areas. These rare hybrids have the potential to produce a variety of unique genetic combinations that could result in more rapid adaptation of a non‐native population to their invaded range potentially facilitating the establishment of invasive species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early generation hybrids may drive range expansion of two invasive fishes

Coulter

Brey

Lamer³

et al. 2019

Freshwater Biology

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“…FluEgg can be applied to determine if a river or reach has sufficient hydraulic characteristics to support spawning of invasive carps and predict the temporal downstream dispersion of eggs and larvae from a known spawning location at a specific time. FluEgg also has the capability to compute the most probable spawning areas for invasive carp in a river/reach using captured eggs or larvae and either the reverse-time particle tracking (RTPT) algorithm for spawning area identification (Zhu et al 2018) or a Monte Carlo approach using iterative forward simulations (Embke et al 2019). While FluEgg can be used without an associated hydraulic model, processing FluEgg with output data from a hydraulic model (1D, 2D or 3D) can improve the accuracy of model predictions.…”

Section: Drift Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Drift models are an applicable tool for natural resource managers to determine which rivers or reaches are potentially suitable to invasive carp spawning (Kočovský et al 2012, Garcia et al 2013, back-calculate where spawning may be occurring within a river or reach (Deters et al 2013, Zhu et al 2018, Embke et al 2019, predict how eggs and larvae are dispersed downstream from a potential or known spawning site (Garcia et al 2015, Murphy et al 2016) and when and where carp reach critical developmental stages (e.g. hatching, gas bladder inflation) following a spawning event , Garcia et al 2013.…”

Section: Drift Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging control strategies for integrated pest management of invasive carps

Cupp

Brey

Calfee

et al. 2021

Journal of Vertebrate Biology

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Invasive carps are ecologically and economically problematic fish species in many large river basins in the United States and pose a threat to aquatic ecosystems throughout much of North America. Four species of invasive carps: black carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus), grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella), silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis), are particularly concerning for native ecosystems because they occupy and disrupt a variety of food and habitat niches. In response, natural resource agencies are developing integrated pest management (IPM) plans to mitigate invasive carps. Control tools are one key component within a successful IPM program and have been a focal point for development by governmental agencies and academic researchers. For example, behavioural deterrents and barriers that block migratory pathways could limit carps range expansion into new areas, while efficient removal methods could suppress established carp populations. However, control tools are sometimes limited in practice due to uncertainty with deployment, efficacy and availability. This review provides an overview of several emerging modelling approaches and control technologies that could inform and support future invasive carp IPM programs.

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“…This map was modified from Fig. 1 in Zhu et al [41]. b Biplot of principle component analysis (PCA).…”

Section: Fish Community Varies In Space and Timementioning

confidence: 99%

Enhanced inference of ecological networks by parameterizing ensembles of population dynamics models constrained with prior knowledge

Liao¹,

Xavier²,

Zhu³

2020

BMC Ecol

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Background: Accurate network models of species interaction could be used to predict population dynamics and be applied to manage real world ecosystems. Most relevant models are nonlinear, however, and data available from real world ecosystems are too noisy and sparsely sampled for common inference approaches. Here we improved the inference of generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) ecological networks by using a new optimization algorithm to constrain parameter signs with prior knowledge and a perturbation-based ensemble method. Results: We applied the new inference to long-term species abundance data from the freshwater fish community in the Illinois River, United States. We constructed an ensemble of 668 gLV models that explained 79% of the data on average. The models indicated (at a 70% level of confidence) a strong positive interaction from emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides) to channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus), which we could validate using data from a nearby observation site, and predicted that the relative abundances of most fish species will continue to fluctuate temporally and concordantly in the near future. The network shows that the invasive silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) has much stronger impacts on native predators than on prey, supporting the notion that the invader perturbs the native food chain by replacing the diets of predators. Conclusions: Ensemble approaches constrained by prior knowledge can improve inference and produce networks from noisy and sparsely sampled time series data to fill knowledge gaps on real world ecosystems. Such network models could aid efforts to conserve ecosystems such as the Illinois River, which is threatened by the invasion of the silver carp.

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Using reverse-time egg transport analysis for predicting Asian carp spawning grounds in the Illinois River

Cited by 22 publications

References 36 publications

Early generation hybrids may drive range expansion of two invasive fishes

Early generation hybrids may drive range expansion of two invasive fishes

Emerging control strategies for integrated pest management of invasive carps

Enhanced inference of ecological networks by parameterizing ensembles of population dynamics models constrained with prior knowledge

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