Using System Dynamics for Safety and Risk Management in Complex Engineering Systems

Dulac,; Leveson,; Zipkin,; Friedenthal,; Cutcher‐Gershenfeld, Joel; Carroll, John M.; Barrett, Jessica R.

doi:10.1109/wsc.2005.1574392

Cited by 20 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…This type of work is very much experimental, but we note that 'hybrid' approaches within accident and risk model are becoming more common within risk management (e.g. [14,15]). † Understanding older passenger behaviour: Finally, there is currently limited understanding around how elderly passengers travel through each station across the rail network.…”

Section: Discussion and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probing deeper into the risks of slips, trips and falls for an ageing rail passenger population: applying a systems approach

Waterson

Kendrick

Ryan

et al. 2016

IET Intelligent Transport Systems

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. (2016) Probing deeper into the risks of slips, trips and falls for an ageing rail passenger population: applying a systems approach. IET Intelligent Transport Systems, 10 (1). pp. 25-31. ISSN 1751-9578Access from the University of Nottingham repository: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/32480/1/ITS-SI-2015-0047.pdf Copyright and reuse:The Nottingham ePrints service makes this work by researchers of the University of Nottingham available open access under the following conditions. This article is made available under the University of Nottingham End User licence and may be reused according to the conditions of the licence. For more details see: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf A note on versions:The version presented here may differ from the published version or from the version of record. If you wish to cite this item you are advised to consult the publisher's version. Please see the repository url above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription. Abstract: In this study, the authors report the findings from a study of the contributory factors leading to slips, trips and falls (STFs) amongst elderly passengers at train stations and how these are likely to change in the future over the medium to long term (the period 2035-2050). Their data draws on: stakeholder interviews with rail personnel and elderly passengers; a set of station observations carried out across the UK; and, a survey of the views of station managers. The findings point to a set of 22 contributory factors covering aspects of organisational, station environment and passenger (individual) influence on STFs. Amongst the factors which most concern station managers at the present and over the next few decades are: rushing behaviour on train platforms; the consumption of alcohol by passengers; aspects of station design (e.g. flooring); and, training for station staff as regard the risks of STFs. The authors summarise their findings in the form of a systems model which highlights priorities with regard to STFs in terms of all of the stakeholders taking part in the study. A final section discusses a set of issues which might form the basis for a future agenda for research and practice in this area.

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Section: Discussion and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probing deeper into the risks of slips, trips and falls for an ageing rail passenger population: applying a systems approach

Waterson

Kendrick

Ryan

et al. 2016

IET Intelligent Transport Systems

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“…In addition, the use of stock and flow models expressed using differential equation notation also takes into account the dynamism of time-dependent risk factors. This strength of system dynamics is well recognized outside of the AUV domain and demonstrated in risk studies across various disciplinary boundaries, from chemical (Garbolino, Chery, & Guarnieri, 2016), mining (Cooke, 2003) to aerospace (Dulac et al, 2005). However, the deterministic nature of system dynamic models does not explicitly account for uncertainties in causal relationships and soft factors.…”

Section: System Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic

et al. 2019

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With the maturing of autonomous technology and better accessibility, there has been a growing interest in the use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). The deployment of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extreme operating environment. To control the risk of loss, existing risk analyses approaches tend to focus more on the AUV's technical aspects and neglect the role of soft factors, such as organizational and human influences. In addition, the dynamic and complex interrelationships of risk variables are also often overlooked due to uncertainties and challenges in quantification. To overcome these shortfalls, a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics risk analysis (FuSDRA) is proposed. In the FuSDRA framework, system dynamics models the interrelationships between risk variables from different dimensions and considers the time-dependent nature of risk while fuzzy logic accounts for uncertainties. To demonstrate its application, an example based on an actual Antarctic AUV program is presented. Focusing on funding and experience of the AUV team, simulation of the FuSDRA risk model shows a declining risk of loss from 0.293 in the early years of the Antarctic AUV program, reaching a minimum of 0.206 before increasing again in later years. Risk control policy recommendations were then derived from the analysis. The example demonstrated how FuSDRA can be applied to inform funding and risk management strategies, or broader application both within the AUV domain and on other complex technological systems.

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“…We find that there is a gap between the present qualitative STAMP model and its logical and verbal tools STPA and CAST, and the quantitative approaches, theories, and practices in the engineering domain. As others have already done (Abdulkhaleq & Wagner, 2013;Abdulkhaleq et al, 2015;Chatzimichailidou at el., 2016;Dulac et al, 2005;Li et al, 2017;Rejzek et al, 2018), we continue the search for integrating into STAMP and its methods a quantitative approach, related to control engineering.…”

Section: Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges in Future Mathematical Modelling of Hierarchical Functional Safety Control Structures within STAMP Safety Model

Arogeti

Hartmann

2019

MATEC Web Conf.

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In the STAMP model, based on control theory, the control relationships between various system elements enforced by the closed Control Loops (CLs) are logical and functional. A literature survey emphasized the fact that for the moment STAMP and its main tools STPA and CAST are not associated with any numerical tools. The main rationale of our work is to understand whether STAMP matches to be a quantitative model. Furthermore, in a case that we find that numerical tools can be used in STAMP, we intend to bridge the gap between the logical-functional approach in STAMP and any of the suitable quantitative approaches applied in Engineering Control Theory (ECT). As a first step, a literature comparison was performed between the basic control parameters existing explicitly at the moment in the STAMP model, and those well known in the literature of ECT. The results reveal that there are many similar terms, especially related to conceptual and general definitions. However, we have observed that there are also basic quantitative parameters from ECT which are not yet referred to in STAMP as quantitative safety evaluation parameters. Another main finding is an inherent difference in various ECT related parameters and the CLs at the various hierarchical levels. ECT was originally developed to deal with physical systems. Thus, any machine related internal control loops within the lower-physical level of a Sociotechnical System (STS) can be directly addressed with quantitative methods from ECT. However, most of the human-machine interactions in the lower levels and the human and societal controls in the higher levels are at the moment not suitable for those methods. We assume these ECT parameters may have an important role in designing and examining systems safety and hence we suggest, should be integrated into STAMP model, in purpose to be able to enhance systems safety.

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Using System Dynamics for Safety and Risk Management in Complex Engineering Systems

Cited by 20 publications

References 2 publications

Probing deeper into the risks of slips, trips and falls for an ageing rail passenger population: applying a systems approach

Probing deeper into the risks of slips, trips and falls for an ageing rail passenger population: applying a systems approach

Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic

Challenges in Future Mathematical Modelling of Hierarchical Functional Safety Control Structures within STAMP Safety Model

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