Using System Dynamics Modelling to Understand and Address the Systemic Issues on Complex Engineering Projects

Abstract

As our world becomes ever more complex, engineering solutions to meet our needs become more difficult to realise. OverviewToday's large engineering projects face significant organisational and operational complexityl involving joint ventures, consortium working, international stakeholders and participants, special purpose companies, project fmancing, prime contracting, etc. Often such projects face conflicting political pressures as socio-economic impacts cross party divides. Contractual arrangements add to management difficulties as customers seek to transfer more risk to prime contractors using risk shareline concepts. As the project moves through its life cycle, organisational and operational issues, together with changing requirements, can adversely impact project schedules and costs, often with dire consequences. Many recent projects have experienced cost overruns in excess of 300%, and 150% to 200% is becoming acceptable. So, how can complex projects be managed effectively?System dynamics have been shown to hold the key to managing complex projects, by understanding and using the feedback loops in those projects. A project belongs to a category of systems called "managed systems". These systems display unusual behaviour originating from the existence of positive and negative feedback loops occurring concurrently in day to day operations. Typically, project control utilises negative loops only, with the positive loops being either ignored or constrained. This ignorance has been shown to be a major contributor to project failure since it is the many positive 132

Prospects for systems engineering process dynamics

“…Stupples discusses that a systems project can be as "complex as the engineering solution with behavior that is extremely dynamic in nature" [3]. New methods and tools are required to investigate and analyze the engineering processes for complex systems.…”

“…System dynamics considers key factors, relationships between factors, and their impact on each other. Stupples identifies that system dynamics, which considers complex feedback loops, is key in managing and understanding complex projects [3]. As systems grow in complexity and size, additional issues are seen with the impact of process decisions on key project business measures including cost, schedule, and quality.…”

“…Little effort has been applied to both qualitatively and quantitatively understand the dynamics associated to the systems engineering processes that are required to develop the product. Examples of some of the work in this area include Madachy et al [11], Sage [12], Stupples [3], and Triantis et al [13].…”

10.3.2 The Development of an Architecture Framework for Systems Engineering Process Simulators

“…The increasing complexity of these systems can also lead to greater project and management complexity. In his 2002 paper, Dr. David Stupples writes that systems projects can be as "complex as the engineering solution with behavior that is extremely dynamic in nature" (Stupples 2002). Projects can have a significant quantity of dynamic and interacting process and socio-technical factors.…”

Proposed highway asset management framework with an emphasis on economic impact analysis

“…The following description put in evidence the capabilities of system dynamics as a tool for modeling complex systems in various fields. Stupples (2002) argued that the ever evolving complex world in which we live demand for complex engineering solutions and that system dynamics approach is the only means of understanding and ultimately controlling such complex behaviors. The Republic of Panama is looking into the possible extension of the Panama Canal, which is considered to be the biggest venture to be undertaken by the country in its 100 years of existence.…”