Using systems science to gain insight into childhood food security in the United States: Report of an expert mapping workshop

Fleischer, Nancy L.; Liese, Angela D.; Hammond, Ross A.; Coleman‐Jensen, Alisha; Gundersen, Craig; Hirschman, Jay; Frongillo, Edward A.; Ma, Xiaoguang; Mehta, Neil K.; Jones, Sonya J.

doi:10.1080/19320248.2017.1364194

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…The theoretical framework employed in this study is based on the production–income–trade triangle that has been widely defined to be a cornerstone in the quality of diets in low-income countries [ 24 , 25 ]. Dual-process theories suggest that under economic stress, people tend to make no optimal food consumption choices [ 26 ].…”

Section: Theoretical Framework and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Supply of Calories, Proteins, and Fats in Low-Income Countries: A Four-Decade Retrospective Study

Erokhin

Tianming

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Over the past decades, both the quantity and quality of food supply for millions of people have improved substantially in the course of economic growth across the developing world. However, the number of undernourished people has resumed growth in the 2010s amid food supply disruptions, economic slowdowns, and protectionist restrictions to agricultural trade. Having been common to most nations, these challenges to the food security status of the population still vary depending on the level of economic development and national income of individual countries. In order to explore the long-run determinants of food supply transformations, this study employs five-stage multiple regression analysis to identify the strengths and directions of effects of agricultural production parameters, income level, price indices, food trade, and currency exchange on supply of calories, proteins, and fats across 11 groups of agricultural products in 1980–2018. To address the diversity of effects across developing nations, the study includes 99 countries of Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa categorized as low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income economies. It is found that in low-income countries, food supply parameters are more strongly affected by production factors compared to economic and trade variables. The effect of economic factors on the food supply of higher-value food products, such as meat and dairy products, fruit, and vegetables, increases with the rise in the level of income, but it stays marginal for staples in all three groups of countries. The influence of trade factors on food supply is stronger compared to production and economic parameters in import-dependent economies irrelevant of the gross national income per capita. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the research on how food supply patterns and their determinants evolve in the course of economic transformations in low-income countries.

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Section: Theoretical Framework and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Supply of Calories, Proteins, and Fats in Low-Income Countries: A Four-Decade Retrospective Study

Erokhin

Tianming

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…The process of simulating possible implementation scenarios holds an additional bene t: simulation often promotes insight. While seldom de ned or operationalized, modelers often use the term "insight" to refer to lessons learned regarding the causal determinants of a given problem (13)(14)(15), the net value of and/or tradeoffs inherent in potential solutions (15)(16)(17), unrecognized evidence gaps (15), unexpected results (16), or sensitivity to the metrics used to measure outcomes (16). Notably, in none of these instances does "insight" refer to a precise estimate or a statement of truth, as is the typical goal of inductive and deductive logic, respectively.…”

Section: Simulation Modeling As An Analytic Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid-Cycle Systems Modeling to Support Evidence-Informed Decision-Making During System-Wide Implementation

Sheldrick

Cruden

Schaefer

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: To “model and simulate change” is an accepted strategy to support implementation at scale. Much like a power analysis can inform decisions about study design, simulation models offer an analytic strategy to synthesize evidence that informs decisions regarding implementation of evidence-based interventions. However, simulation modeling is under-utilized in implementation science. To realize the potential of simulation modeling as an implementation strategy, additional methods are required to assist stakeholders to use models to examine underlying assumptions, consider alternative strategies, and anticipate downstream consequences of implementation. To this end, we propose Rapid-cycle Systems Modeling (RCSM)—a form of group modeling designed to promote engagement with evidence to support implementation. To demonstrate its utility, we provide an illustrative case study with mid-level administrators developing system-wide interventions that aim to identify and treat trauma among children entering foster care.Methods: RCSM is an iterative method that includes three steps per cycle: (1) identify and prioritize stakeholder questions, (2) develop or refine a simulation model, and (3) engage in dialogue regarding model relevance, insights, and utility for implementation. For the case study, 31 key informants were engaged in step 1, a prior simulation model was adapted for step 2, and six member-checking group interviews (n=16) were conducted for step 3.Results: Step 1 engaged qualitative methods to identify and prioritize stakeholder questions, specifically identifying a set of inter-related decisions to promote implementing trauma-informed screening. In step 2, the research team created a presentation to communicate key findings from the simulation model that addressed decisions about programmatic reach, optimal screening thresholds to balance demand for treatment with supply, capacity to start-up and sustain screening, and availability of downstream capacity to provide treatment for those with indicated need. In step 3, member-checking group interviews with stakeholders documented the relevance of the model results to implementation decisions, insight regarding opportunities to improve system performance, and potential to inform conversations regarding anticipated implications of implementation choices. Conclusions: By embedding simulation modeling in a process of stakeholder engagement, RCSM offers guidance to realize the potential of modeling not only as an analytic strategy, but also as an implementation strategy.

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“…The process of simulating possible implementation scenarios holds an additional benefit: simulation often promotes insight. While seldom defined or operationalized, modelers often use the term “insight” to refer to lessons learned regarding the causal determinants of a given problem [ 13 – 15 ], the net value of and/or tradeoffs inherent in potential solutions [ 15 – 17 ], unrecognized evidence gaps [ 15 ], unexpected results [ 16 ], or sensitivity to the metrics used to measure outcomes [ 16 ]. Notably, in none of these instances does “insight” refer to a precise estimate or a statement of truth, as is the typical goal of inductive and deductive logic, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid-cycle systems modeling to support evidence-informed decision-making during system-wide implementation

Sheldrick

Cruden

Schaefer

et al. 2021

Implement Sci Commun

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Background To “model and simulate change” is an accepted strategy to support implementation at scale. Much like a power analysis can inform decisions about study design, simulation models offer an analytic strategy to synthesize evidence that informs decisions regarding implementation of evidence-based interventions. However, simulation modeling is under-utilized in implementation science. To realize the potential of simulation modeling as an implementation strategy, additional methods are required to assist stakeholders to use models to examine underlying assumptions, consider alternative strategies, and anticipate downstream consequences of implementation. To this end, we propose Rapid-cycle Systems Modeling (RCSM)—a form of group modeling designed to promote engagement with evidence to support implementation. To demonstrate its utility, we provide an illustrative case study with mid-level administrators developing system-wide interventions that aim to identify and treat trauma among children entering foster care. Methods RCSM is an iterative method that includes three steps per cycle: (1) identify and prioritize stakeholder questions, (2) develop or refine a simulation model, and (3) engage in dialogue regarding model relevance, insights, and utility for implementation. For the case study, 31 key informants were engaged in step 1, a prior simulation model was adapted for step 2, and six member-checking group interviews (n = 16) were conducted for step 3. Results Step 1 engaged qualitative methods to identify and prioritize stakeholder questions, specifically identifying a set of inter-related decisions to promote implementing trauma-informed screening. In step 2, the research team created a presentation to communicate key findings from the simulation model that addressed decisions about programmatic reach, optimal screening thresholds to balance demand for treatment with supply, capacity to start-up and sustain screening, and availability of downstream capacity to provide treatment for those with indicated need. In step 3, member-checking group interviews with stakeholders documented the relevance of the model results to implementation decisions, insight regarding opportunities to improve system performance, and potential to inform conversations regarding anticipated implications of implementation choices. Conclusions By embedding simulation modeling in a process of stakeholder engagement, RCSM offers guidance to realize the potential of modeling not only as an analytic strategy, but also as an implementation strategy.

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Using systems science to gain insight into childhood food security in the United States: Report of an expert mapping workshop

Cited by 6 publications

References 66 publications

The Supply of Calories, Proteins, and Fats in Low-Income Countries: A Four-Decade Retrospective Study

The Supply of Calories, Proteins, and Fats in Low-Income Countries: A Four-Decade Retrospective Study

Rapid-Cycle Systems Modeling to Support Evidence-Informed Decision-Making During System-Wide Implementation

Rapid-cycle systems modeling to support evidence-informed decision-making during system-wide implementation

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