Using the Delphi process to analyze social policy implementation: A post hoc case from vocational rehabilitation

Buck, Andrew J.; Gross, Meir; Hakim, Simon; Weinblatt, J.

doi:10.1007/bf00999473

Cited by 53 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Coefficient of variation has been used in several Delphi studies to measure consensus, as it allows for the direct comparison of succeeding rounds. An indication of consensus is that the coefficient of variation decreases from one round to the next [30,31]. A coefficient of variation of less than 0.5 indicates a reasonable internal agreement [32].…”

Section: Level Of Consensusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of Financial Sustainability for Farm Credit Applications—A Delphi Study

Henning

Jordaan

2016

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Farmers use credit from commercial credit providers to finance production activities. Commercial credit providers have to predict the financial sustainability of the enterprise to ensure that the borrower will have the ability to repay the loan. A Delphi study was conducted to explore what factors are used as indicators of loan-repayment ability of farmers. The objective was not only to identify factors that are currently considered, but also to identify other personal attributes that may improve the accuracy in predicting the repayment ability of potential borrowers. The Delphi was applied to a panel consisting of nine credit analysts and credit managers from a commercial credit provider in South Africa. The results indicate that the current and past financial performance, account standing, collateral, and credit record of the farm are very important in the assessment of applications in terms of financial performance. Experience and the success factors compared to competitors were found to be important, while age and education/qualification are regarded as less important in predicting repayment ability. The results also show that, although not currently objectively included in credit evaluations, credit analysis regards leadership and human relations; commitment and confidence; internal locus of control; self-efficacy; calculated risk taking; need for achievement; and opportunity seeking as important indicators of the ability of potential borrows to repay their loans. Thus, credit analysts and managers also regard management abilities and entrepreneurial characteristics of potential borrowers to be good indicators of repayment ability. Results from this research provide new indicator factors that can be used to extend existing credit evaluation instruments in order to more accurately predict repayment ability.

show abstract

Section: Level Of Consensusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of Financial Sustainability for Farm Credit Applications—A Delphi Study

Henning

Jordaan

2016

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The first one is a standard t-test, which has been widely used in the literature (e.g. Hakim and Weinblatt, 1993;Buck et al 1993). We use two variants of the test: for paired samples between round one and two, since we follow the answers' evolution of the same sample; and for independent samples between round two and three, since we compare experts with receivers.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the purpose of this study, we rely on the coefficient of variation to measure consensus level and change. Buck et al (1993) argue that a consistent decrease of this coefficient between rounds would signify an increase in the consensus, while Zinn et al (2001) and English and Keran (1976) argue a coefficient of variation at or below 50% to signify that a reasonably good internal agreement has been reached. We set slightly lower cut-off rate of 40%, suggesting that the consensus of 60% (calculated as 1 -coefficient of variation) would be considered satisfactory for this study and a stop point after at least two rounds for the same group (hence, not counting the cross round) have been conducted.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in the Western Balkans. A Forecasting Based on a Delphi Process

Petreski

Petreski²,

Tumanoska³

et al. 2017

Comparative Southeast European Studies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The objective of this paper is to forecast the size and effects of remittances and emigration in four Western-Balkan countries: Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Kosovo, through application of a qualitative forecasting method: a Delphi questionnaire. We solicited consensus building within and between two groups of respondents: 10 experts and 20 receivers were consulted per country in three subsequent rounds -two on the same group, and a third cross-round whereby average answers of receivers were given to experts, and vice versa. Consensual results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and will reduce in Albania and Kosovo. With lower consensus, results forecast that emigration will decelerate in Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo, and will accelerate in Serbia by 2021. Emigration effects for the society have been forecasted to be predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecasted to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken it in Albania. In all four countries, expert and receivers were in agreement that remittances will continue to support current consumption only. On the other hand, Macedonians lacked consensus on remittances' effect on the labour market, whereby experts agreed that remittances will support inactivity, while receivers -employment. On the other hand, there has been a consensus achieved in the other three countries that remittances will support labour-market activity.

show abstract

“…Policy Delphi has been used in public administration and business management research to examine, among other issues, consumer problems in a marketing system (Wikstrom, 1978), city planning and development in the Middle East (Smit & Mason, 1990), public health issues (Rainhorn et al, 1994;O'Loughlin & Kelly, 2004), public administration policies (Buck et al, 1993;Critcher & Gladstone, 1998), taxation issues (Evans & Walpole, 1999) and organisational strategic planning (Akkermans et al, 1999;Mara, 2000). However despite its use for identifying the spread of expert opinion, the authors have been unable to find examples of its use in hospitality research other than one presented here.…”

Section: [Insert Table 1 About Here]mentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond consensus: an alternative use of Delphi enquiry in hospitality research

Paraskevas

Saunders

2012

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose -To critically review the use of Delphi techniques in qualitative research for utilising 'expert' opinions and to explore through a detailed example, how Policy Delphi can be used by hospitality researchers as an alternative to the more widely used Normative Delphi.Design/methodology/approach -This paper reflects on the research methodology of a project that explored organisational crisis signals detection using Policy Delphi with a criterion sample comprising 16 senior hotel executives involved in crisis management.Findings -The main methodological concerns regarding Delphi are the definition of consensus, the expertise of the panel, its lack of scientific rigour, and -due to its lack of uniformity-reliability and validity of findings. Policy Delphi by default addresses the first since it does not seek consensus and can, through its design and execution, address the remaining concerns.Research limitations/implications -Carefully designed Policy Delphi can offer a powerful research tool for exploratory research in hospitality, particularly for development of policies and strategies within an organisation. Unlike Normative Delphi, it is not intended as a decision making tool, but rather as a tool to generate options and suggest alternative courses of action for consideration.Originality/value -The paper presents a valuable research tool that has evaded the attention of many hospitality researchers offering an illustrative example of its use in exploratory research to deliver credible, transferable and confirmable findings.

show abstract

Using the Delphi process to analyze social policy implementation: A post hoc case from vocational rehabilitation

Cited by 53 publications

References 7 publications

Determinants of Financial Sustainability for Farm Credit Applications—A Delphi Study

Determinants of Financial Sustainability for Farm Credit Applications—A Delphi Study

The Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in the Western Balkans. A Forecasting Based on a Delphi Process

Beyond consensus: an alternative use of Delphi enquiry in hospitality research

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About