Using the NARMAX approach to model the evolution of energetic electrons fluxes at geostationary orbit

Balikhin, M. A.; Boynton, Richard; Walker, S. N.; Borovsky, Joseph E.; Billings, S.A.; Wei, Hua‐Liang

doi:10.1029/2011gl048980

Cited by 125 publications

(189 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(47 reference statements)

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“…A very different approach is used in the SNB3GEO models (Balikhin et al 2011;Boynton et al 2015Boynton et al , 2016) based on Multi-Input Single-Output (MISO) Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (NARMAX) methodologies (Leontaritis and Billings 1985a,b). In the applied system identification approach, models are automatically deduced from input-output data by the system identification algorithms.…”

Section: Ring Current Electrons and Effects On Satellitesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

2017

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One of the definitions of space weather describes it as the time-varying space environment that may be hazardous to technological systems in space and/or on the ground and/or endanger human health or life. The ring current has its contributions to space weather effects, both in terms of particles, ions and electrons, which constitute it, and magnetic and electric fields produced and modified by it at the ground and in space. We address the main aspects of the space weather effects from the ring current starting with brief review of ring current discovery and physical processes and the Dst-index and predictions of the ring current and storm occurrence based on it. Special attention is paid to the effects on satellites produced by the ring current electrons. The ring current is responsible for several processes in the other inner magnetosphere populations, such as the plasmasphere and radiation belts which is also described. Finally, we discuss the ring current influence on the ionosphere and the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC).

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Section: Ring Current Electrons and Effects On Satellitesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

2017

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“…Within the radiation belts, magnetosonic waves form an integral part of the mechanism to accelerate electrons to very high energies (Friedel et al, 2002;Horne et al, 2007). However, it is still unclear which external influence modulate the generation mechanism of these electrons (Reeves et al, 2011;Balikhin et al, 2011;Boynton et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of wave vectors using the phase differencing method

Walker

Moiseenko

2013

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract. Due to the collisionless nature of space plasmas, plasma waves play an important role in the redistribution of energy between the various particle populations in many regions of geospace. In order to fully comprehend such mechanisms it is necessary to characterise the nature of the waves present. This involves the determination of properties such as wave vector k. There are a number of methods used to calculate k based on the multipoint measurements that are now available. These methods rely on the fact that the same wave packet is simultaneously observed at two or more locations whose separation is small in comparison to the correlation length of the wave packet. This limitation restricts the analysis to low frequency (MHD) waves. In this paper we propose an extension to the phase differencing method to enable the correlation of measurements that were not made simultaneously but differ temporally by a number of wave periods. The method is illustrated using measurements of magnetosonic waves from the Cluster STAFF search coil magnetometer. It is shown that it is possible to identify wave packets whose coherence length is much less than the separation between the measurement locations. The resulting dispersion is found to agree with theoretical results.

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“…This technique has recently been applied to various energies of the electron flux ranging from 24.1 keV to 3.5 MeV, obtaining some unexpected results (Boynton et al, 2013;Balikhin et al, 2011). Balikhin et al (2011) found that for 1.8-3.5 MeV electrons, the solar wind density had the most influence. The following study by Boynton et al (2013) reported an increasing influence in density from ∼ 1 until 1.8 MeV, above which it became the most important control parameter for the electron fluxes at GEO.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study produced a new coupling function that was then used as an input to model the Dst index in a following paper (Boynton et al, 2011a). This technique has recently been applied to various energies of the electron flux ranging from 24.1 keV to 3.5 MeV, obtaining some unexpected results (Boynton et al, 2013;Balikhin et al, 2011). Balikhin et al (2011) found that for 1.8-3.5 MeV electrons, the solar wind density had the most influence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO

2015

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Abstract. Multi-input single-output (MISO) nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) models have been derived to forecast the > 0.8 MeV and > 2 MeV electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO). The NARMAX algorithm is able to identify mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems from input-output data. The models employ solar wind parameters as inputs to provide an estimate of the average electron flux for the following day, i.e. the 1-day forecast. The identified models are shown to provide a reliable forecast for both > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron fluxes and are capable of providing real-time warnings of when the electron fluxes will be dangerously high for satellite systems. These models, named SNB 3 GEO > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron flux models, have been implemented online at http://www.ssg.group.shef. ac.uk/USSW/UOSSW.html.

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Using the NARMAX approach to model the evolution of energetic electrons fluxes at geostationary orbit

Cited by 125 publications

References 22 publications

Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

Determination of wave vectors using the phase differencing method

Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO

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