Using the Second-Generation GEFS Reforecasts to Predict Ceiling, Visibility, and Aviation Flight Category

Verlinden, Kathryn L.; Bright, David R.

doi:10.1175/waf-d-16-0211.1

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These methods continuously can be refined to improve aviation weather forecasts (Jacobs and Maat 2004;Vislocky and Fritsch 1997). An aviation-based application of NOAA's secondgeneration medium-range Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast (GEFS/R) dataset is being used to study flight rules (Verlinden and Bright 2017). Their study generated a probabilistic prediction system for IFR conditions at major U.S. airports.…”

Section: Future Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review on Weather Impact on Aviation Operations: Visibility, Wind, Precipitation, Icing

Gultepe

2023

JAOAM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Meteorological conditions affect aviation, marine, and land transportation, and play an important role in aviation accidents and operations. Wind (Uh), visibility (Vis), and Precipitation rate and amount (PR and PA) are the most important meteorological parameters that affect the terminal weather and in- flight conditions. Weather is considered a causal factor in about 30% of all US aviation accidents (NASA, 1999). Fatal aviation accidents based on the NTSB data related to ceiling, fog, and wind are estimated at 20%, 14%, and 10%, correspondingly. Knowing weather conditions can help to improve operational planning, including fuel consumption and people safety. Wind shear and gust, and turbulence need to be measured or predicted for the flight route and airport terminal weather. In addition, low Vis and ceiling are the second most important weather events affecting aviation operations. Lastly, precipitation type, rate and amount are the third important group of parameters that severely affect the flight operations such as de-icing. Earlier analysis of these events suggested that the meteorological conditions need to be studied in detail to better predict and monitor weather conditions for operational needs. In this respect, both observations quality and numerical weather predictions model simulations should be improved, and both new technologies and statistical models such as machine learning and artificial intelligence analysis should be developed for the aviation operations.

show abstract

Section: Future Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review on Weather Impact on Aviation Operations: Visibility, Wind, Precipitation, Icing

Gultepe

2023

JAOAM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…or visual flight rules (VFR) (see Table 1 for flight condition definitions, Verlinden and Bright 2017). In addition to this, the meteorological and aviation scientific communities recently studied meteorological parameters important for aviation operations that are related to ceiling height and Vis forecasts (Rudack and Ghirardelli 2010).…”

Section: A) Visibility and Ceiling Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of High Impact Weather for Aviation Meteorology

Gültepe

Sharman

Williams

et al. 2019

Pure Appl. Geophys.

218

121

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This review paper summarizes current knowledge available for aviation operations related to meteorology and provides suggestions for necessary improvements in the measurement and prediction of weather-related parameters, new physical methods for numerical weather predictions (NWP), and next-generation integrated systems. Severe weather can disrupt aviation operations on the ground or in-flight. The most important parameters related to aviation meteorology are wind and turbulence, fog visibility (Vis) and ceiling, rain and snow amount and rates, icing, ice microphysical parameters, convection and precipitation intensity, microbursts, hail, and lightning. Measurements of these parameters are also functions of sensor response times and measurement thresholds in extreme weather conditions. In addition to these, airport environments can play an important role leading to intensification of extreme weather conditions or high impact weather events, e.g., anthropogenic ice fog. To observe meteorological parameters, new remote sensing platforms, namely wind LIDAR, sodars, radars, and geostationary satellites, and in-situ observations at the surface and in the cloud, as well as aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) mounted sensors, are becoming more common. Because of prediction issues at smaller time and space scales (e.g., <1 km), meteorological forecasts from NWP models need to be continuously improved. Aviation weather forecasts also need to be developed to provide information that represents both deterministic and statistical approaches. In this review, we present available resources and issues for aviation meteorology and evaluate them for required improvements related to measurements, nowcasting, forecasting, and climate change, and emphasize future challenges.

show abstract

“…Thanks to advances in models, data assimilation schemes and the methods used to simulate initial and model uncertainties, today ensembles are widely used in weather prediction (see, e.g., Molteni et al, ; Lalaurette, ; Dutra et al, ). Ensembles are also used outside the weather sector, in hydrology (Pappenberger et al, ; Thielen et al, ), in the energy sector (Taylor and Buizza, ) and in aviation (Verlinden and Bright, ; Osinski and Bouttier, ).…”

Section: The Ecmwf 2017 Annual Seminar On “Ensemble Prediction: Pastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction to the special issue on “25 years of ensemble forecasting”

Buizza

2018

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Twenty-five years ago the first operational, ensemble forecasts were issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. These centres were followed in 1996 by the Meteorological Service of Canada, and in the subsequent years by many others. Operational ensemble-based, probabilistic forecasts signed a paradigm shift in weather prediction: for the first time, forecasters and users could have reliable and accurate estimates of the range of possible future scenarios, and not just a single realization of the future. Today, ensembles are used not only to provide reliable and accurate forecasts for the short and medium range, the monthly and seasonal time-scale, but also to provide estimates of the initial state of the atmosphere, and to generate future climate projections. This article provides an overview on how we developed the early ensembles, illustrates the key characteristics of the seven operational, global, medium-range ensembles, and discusses ongoing trends to further improve ensemble performance.

show abstract

Using the Second-Generation GEFS Reforecasts to Predict Ceiling, Visibility, and Aviation Flight Category

Cited by 6 publications

References 21 publications

A Review on Weather Impact on Aviation Operations: Visibility, Wind, Precipitation, Icing

A Review on Weather Impact on Aviation Operations: Visibility, Wind, Precipitation, Icing

A Review of High Impact Weather for Aviation Meteorology

Introduction to the special issue on “25 years of ensemble forecasting”

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About