Utilizing Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Adaptation Options in the Niger River Basin, West Africa

Abstract

Climate change is estimated to substantially reduce crop yields in Sub-Saharan West Africa by 2050. Yet, a limited number of studies also suggest that several adaptation measures may mitigate the effects of climate change induced yield loss. In this paper, we used AquaCrop, a process-based model developed by the FAO (The Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy), to quantify the risk of climate change on several key cereal crops in the Niger Basin. The crops analyzed include maize, millet, and sorghum under rain fed cultivation systems in various agro-ecological zones within the Niger Basin. We also investigated several adaptation strategies, including changes in the sowing dates, soil nutrient status, and cultivar. Future climate change is estimated using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP-Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenario at mid future time period, 2021/25-2050. The results show that on average, temperature had a larger effect on crop yields so that the increase in precipitation could still be a net loss of crop yield. Our simulated results showed that climate change effects on maize and sorghum yield would be mostly positive (2% to 6% increase) in the Southern Guinea savanna zone while at the Northern Guinea savanna zone it is mostly negative (2% to 20% decrease). The results show that at the Sahelian zone the projected changes in temperature and precipitation have little to no impact on millet yield for the future time period, 2021/25-2050. In all agro-ecological zones, increasing soil fertility from poor fertility to moderate, near optimal and optimal level significantly reversed the negative yield change respectively by over 20%, 70% and 180% for moderate fertility, near optimal fertility, and optimal fertility. Thus, management or adaptation factors, such as soil fertility, had a much larger effect on crop yield than the climatic change factors. These results provide actionable guidance on effective climate change adaptation strategies for rain fed agriculture in the region.

The Impact of Climate Change Induced Extreme Events on Agriculture and Food Security: A Review on Nigeria

“…According to the simulated results achieved, it shows that climate change will positively affect the production of maize and sorghum to about 2% -6% increase in the Southern Guinea savanna zone. In the other hand, in the Northern Guinea savanna, production is projected to have 2% -20% decrease due to climate change [17]. These results and studies shows that more studies need to be carried out in order to unfold the impacts of climate change on food security in various locations in Africa and most importantly on individual crop.…”

Climate security and a vulnerability model for conflict prevention: a systematic literature review focusing on African agriculture

“…Thus, access to the mentioned data sheets can be provided by the corresponding author upon reasonable request. 4 The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) have collaborated to produce a large dataset on armed conflict globally, from the period of 1946 to the present day. For further information, refer to the website, https://www.prio.org/ Data/Armed-Conflict/UCDP-PRIO/ 5 Ide et al [25] refer to the research on the drivers' civil war onset, asserting that possible indicators for the general risk of violent conflict are best noted in this literature.…”

Sensitivity of Maize Yield in Smallholder Systems to Climate Scenarios in Semi-Arid Regions of West Africa: Accounting for Variability in Farm Management Practices

“…The impact of climate change scenarios on West African agriculture has been the subject of research interest in recent times. A field level impact assessment by [17] reported the impact for the southern and northern Guinea savanna zones in the Niger basin. In [18], the authors did a meta-data analysis of future yields based on 16 studies selected from the literature to estimate the impact of climate scenarios on crop yield.…”