Validating an elicited problem to hinder a business goal is often more important than finding solutions in general. For example, validating the impact of a client's account balance toward an unpaid loan would be critical as a bank can take some actions to mitigate the problem. However, business organizations face difficulties confirming whether some business events or phenomena are causing a problem against a business goal. Some challenges to validate a problem are identifying testable factors for the identified problem, preparing data to validate, analyzing relationships between the factors and a problem, and reasoning the relationships towards high-level problems. Information systems developed to solve unconfirmed problems frequently tackle an erroneous problem, leading to some dissatisfying systems, consequently not achieving business goals. This paper proposes a goal-oriented and machine learningbased approach, Gomphy, for validating a business problem. The Gomphy presents an ontology and a process, a problem-related entity modeling method to identify relevant data features, a data preparation method, and an evaluation method of a problem for high-level problems. To illustrate our approach, we have validated problems behind an unpaid loan in one bank as an empirical study. We feel that at least the proposed approach helps validate business events negatively contributing to a goal, giving some insights about the validated problem.