Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 3. Blind validation for internal and outlet responses

Bathurst, James C.; Ewen, John; Parkin, Geoff; O’Connell, P. E.; Cooper, J. David

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09.021

Cited by 89 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…19-23). This is accounted for by setting bound values on the more important model parameters and, through simulation, creating corresponding bounds on the model output (Ewen and Parkin, 1996;Lukey et al, 2000;Bathurst et al, 2004). The aim of the landslide modelling then becomes to bracket the observed pattern of occurrence with several simulations based on the different parameter bound values, rather than to reproduce the observed pattern as accurately as possible with one simulation (Bathurst et al, in press).…”

Section: Model Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario modelling of basin-scale, shallow landslide sediment yield, Valsassina, Italian Southern Alps

Bathurst

Moretti

El-Hames

et al. 2005

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The SHETRAN model for determining the sediment yield arising from shallow landsliding at the scale of a river catchment was applied to the 180-km 2 Valsassina basin in the Italian Southern Alps, with the aim of demonstrating that the model can simulate long term patterns of landsliding and the associated sediment yields and that it can be used to explore the sensitivity of the landslide sediment supply system to changes in catchment characteristics. The model was found to reproduce the observed spatial distribution of landslides from a 50-year record very well but probably with an overestimate of the annual rate of landsliding. Simulated sediment yields were within the range observed in a wider region of northern Italy. However, the results suggest that the supply of shallow landslide material to the channel network contributes relatively little to the overall long term sediment yield compared with other sources. The model was applied for scenarios of possible future climate (drier and warmer) and land use (fully forested hillslopes). For both scenarios, there is a modest reduction in shallow landslide occurrence and the overall sediment yield. This suggests that any current schemes for mitigating sediment yield impact in Valsassina remain valid. The application highlights the need for further research in eliminating the large number of unconditionally unsafe landslide sites typically predicted by the model and in avoiding large overestimates of landslide occurrence.

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Section: Model Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario modelling of basin-scale, shallow landslide sediment yield, Valsassina, Italian Southern Alps

Bathurst

Moretti

El-Hames

et al. 2005

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…More recently, physically based, spatially distributed hydrological models have complemented the experimental approach to provide new insights into the processes undergoing change, both prior and post-forest removal (Bathurst et al, 2004;Legesse et al, 2003;Li et al, 2007). Such work indicates that, due to shifts in evapotranspiration and soil hydraulic properties and moisture, increases in water yield can be expected after forest thinning (Hundecha and Bardossy, 2004;Li et al, 2007;Serengil et al, 2007;Webb and Kathuria, 2012) …”

Section: H a Moreno Et Al: Hydrologic Effects Of Forest Thinningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the distributed effects of forest thinning on the long-term water balance and streamflow extremes for a semi-arid basin in the southwestern US

Moreno

Gupta

White

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. To achieve water resource sustainability in the water-limited southwestern US, it is critical to understand the potential effects of proposed forest thinning on the hydrology of semi-arid basins, where disturbances to headwater catchments can cause significant changes in the local water balance components and basinwise streamflows. In Arizona, the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) is being developed with the goal of restoring 2.4 million acres of ponderosa pine along the Mogollon Rim. Using the physically based, spatially distributed triangulated irregular network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) model, we examine the potential impacts of the 4FRI on the hydrology of Tonto Creek, a basin in the Verde-Tonto-Salt (VTS) system, which provides much of the water supply for the Phoenix metropolitan area. Long-term (20-year) simulations indicate that forest removal can trigger significant shifts in the spatiotemporal patterns of various hydrological components, causing increases in net radiation, surface temperature, wind speed, soil evaporation, groundwater recharge and runoff, at the expense of reductions in interception and shading, transpiration, vadose zone moisture and snow water equivalent, with south-facing slopes being more susceptible to enhanced atmospheric losses. The net effect will likely be increases in mean and maximum streamflow, particularly during El Niño events and the winter months, and chiefly for those scenarios in which soil hydraulic conductivity has been significantly reduced due to thinning operations. In this particular climate, forest thinning can lead to net loss of surface water storage by vegetation and snowpack, increasing the vulnerability of ecosystems and populations to larger and more frequent hydrologic extreme conditions on these semi-arid systems.

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“…The parameters like Strickler overland flow resistance coefficient, Actual Evapotranspiration/Potential Evapotranspiration ratio and soil parameters namely soil depth, saturated hydraulic conductivity, soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity functions were identified as key parameters required to be specified using field or calibrated data for flow simulations from studies conducted by Parkin [14], Bathurst et al [5,6] and Birkinshaw et al [18]. A sensitivity analysis of the above six parameters is performed to arrive at the final values.…”

Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The spatial heterogeneity of rainfall in the model is accounted by using various spatial interpolation methods. The impact of different spatiotemporal resolution of rainfall input on simulated runoff, using hydrological models other than SHETRAN, was examined by many studies [4,5,6,7]. Dirks et al, compared four interpolation methods namely the Inverse distance weighted method, Theissen polygon, Kriging and Areal mean method using rainfall data from a network of thirteen rain gauges in Norfolk Island [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Effects of Spatial Interpolation of Rainfall on the Streamflow Response

Sreedevi¹,

T.I²

2016

CiVEJ

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Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 3. Blind validation for internal and outlet responses

Cited by 89 publications

References 32 publications

Scenario modelling of basin-scale, shallow landslide sediment yield, Valsassina, Italian Southern Alps

Scenario modelling of basin-scale, shallow landslide sediment yield, Valsassina, Italian Southern Alps

Modeling the distributed effects of forest thinning on the long-term water balance and streamflow extremes for a semi-arid basin in the southwestern US

Assessing the Effects of Spatial Interpolation of Rainfall on the Streamflow Response

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