Validation of Pest Management Models
1

Welch, Stephen M.; Croft, B. A.; Michels, Marjan

doi:10.1093/ee/10.4.425

Cited by 48 publications

(29 citation statements)

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“…Integration of complementary methods (e.g., pheromone, natural enemies, cultural, and resistance) in either an asynchronous or synchronous strategy increases the modeling complexity dramatically and might alter the conclusions here. Validation of the beneÞts of control programs in practice is difÞcult because of the biological complexity (Menke and Greene 1976, Welch et al 1981, Boivin et al 1991.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Areawide Models Comparing Synchronous Versus Asynchronous Treatments for Control of Dispersing Insect Pests

Byers¹,

Castle²

2005

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Integrated pest management (IPM) has the goal of combining several control methods that reduce populations of pest insects and their damage to tolerable levels and thereby reduce the use of costly pesticides that may harm the environment. Insect populations can be monitored during the season to determine when the densities exceed an economic threshold that requires treatment, often as an insecticide application. We developed a simulation model where insect populations varied in exponential growth in fields and dispersed to adjacent fields each day of a season. The first model monitored populations of individual fields in a grid of fields and treated any field with insecticide if it exceeded a threshold population (asynchronous model) as done in traditional IPM. The second model treated the entire grid of fields with insecticide when the average population of all fields exceeded the threshold (synchronous model). We found that the synchronous model at all growth and dispersal rates tested had average field populations during a season that were significantly lower and required fewer treatments than the asynchronous method. Parameters such as percentage of fallow fields, number of fields, and treatment threshold had little affect on relative differences between the two models. The simulations indicate that cooperation among growers in areawide monitoring of fields to obtain an average population estimate for use in treatment thresholds would result in significantly less insect damage and fewer insecticide treatments. The synchronous method is more efficient because population refugia are precluded from which dispersal could reintroduce insects.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Areawide Models Comparing Synchronous Versus Asynchronous Treatments for Control of Dispersing Insect Pests

Byers¹,

Castle²

2005

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“…New techniques are readily adopted only if affording increased precision at little or no increase in cost. Welch et al (1981) make an eloquent argument (with which I concur) that we may not have implemented models already adequate for many pest management purposes because of demands by researchers on an unattainable, and unneeded, degree of accuracy.…”

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confidence: 99%

Day-Degree Methods for Pest Management1

Pruess

1983

Environmental Entomology

259

206

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“…The accuracy of the Weibull distribution to model adult emergence was assessed for emergence between 5 and 95% by using indifference bands of Ϯ 7 d (Welch et al 1981). Indifference bands were set at Ϯ7 d because this is the interval at which traps were monitored.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenology of <I>Lacanobia subjuncta</I> (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Washington and Oregon Apple Orchards

Doerr¹,

Brunner²,

Jones³

2005

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The phenology of Lacanobia subjuncta (Grote & Robinson) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) was investigated in 30 apple orchards in central Washington state and northeastern Oregon from 1998 to 2001 (57 total orchard-yr). Adult captures in pheromone-baited traps were fit to a Weibull distribution to model emergence of the first and second generations. Initial capture of first generation adults was observed at 216.2 +/- 2.6 degree-days (DD) (mean +/- SEM) from 1 March by using a base temperature of 6.7 degrees C. The model predicted that flight was 5 and 95% complete by 240 and 700 degree-days (DD), respectively. Monitoring of oviposition and hatch was used to establish a protandry plus preoviposition degree-day requirement of 160.0 +/- 7.7 DD, as well as to provide data to describe the entire hatch period. Egg hatch was 5 and 95% complete by 395 and 630 DD, respectively. The start of the second flight was observed at 1217.1 +/- 8.3 DD by using an upper threshold for development of 32 degrees C and a horizontal cutoff. The model indicated that the second flight was 5 and 95% complete by 1220 and 1690 DD, respectively. Second generation hatch was 5 and 95% complete by 1440 and 1740 DD, respectively. A discussion of the potential uses of these detailed phenology data in optimizing management strategies is presented.

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Validation of Pest Management Models 1

Cited by 48 publications

References 0 publications

Areawide Models Comparing Synchronous Versus Asynchronous Treatments for Control of Dispersing Insect Pests

Areawide Models Comparing Synchronous Versus Asynchronous Treatments for Control of Dispersing Insect Pests

Day-Degree Methods for Pest Management1

Phenology of <I>Lacanobia subjuncta</I> (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Washington and Oregon Apple Orchards

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