Validation of the coronal mass ejection predictions at the Earth orbit estimated by ENLIL heliosphere cone model

Taktakishvili, A.; Кузнецова, М.; MacNeice, P. J.; Hesse, Michael; Rastätter, L.; Pulkkinen, A.; Chulaki, A.; Odstrčil, D.

doi:10.1029/2008sw000448

Cited by 83 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…With these capabilities, STEREO was ideally designed to connect solar eruptions with their solar wind disturbances. Of similar importance is the introduction of massively-parallel supercomputers in the late 1990's, which have allowed the first realistic three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of specific CME events (e.g., Odstrcil et al 2005;Taktakishvili et al 2009). A review by Webb and Howard (2012) summarizes observational studies of CMEs utilizing data from STEREO among many other spacecraft while a companion paper by Chen (2011) summarizes recent advances in numerical modeling of CME initiation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

et al. 2017

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As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

et al. 2017

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“…To understand and forecast these disturbances in interplanetary (IP) space caused by CMEs, it is essential to obtain their three-dimensional (3D) parameters, such as speed, width, and propagation direction (Taktakishvili et al 2009;Lugaz et al 2011;Jang et al 2014;Lee et al 2014;Möstl et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COMPARISON BETWEEN 2D AND 3D PARAMETERS OF 306 FRONT-SIDE HALO CMEs FROM 2009 TO 2013

Jang

Moon

Kim

et al. 2016

ApJ

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We investigate 306 LASCO front-side halo (partial and full) CMEs from 2009 to 2013, which are well-observed by both the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO). These CMEs have two-dimensional (2D) parameters, such as speed, angular width, and propagation direction, from a single spacecraft (SOHO), as well as three-dimensional (3D) parameters from a multi-spacecraft (STEREO). These 2D CME parameters, which are based on plane-of-sky observations, are taken from the SOHO LASCO CME catalog and the NGDC flare catalog. We have determined their 3D CME parameters using the Stereoscopic CME analysis tool (StereoCAT) provided by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA. We compare 2D and 3D CME parameters, making this the most comprehensive statistical study on CME 3D parameters. As a result, we find that 2D speeds underestimate the 3D speed by about 20%. The 3D width ranges from 30°to 158°, values which are much smaller than the 2D widths with a mean value of 225°. We also find that the ratio between the 2D and 3D widths decreases with central meridian distance. The 3D propagation directions are similar to the flare locations, with a mean absolute difference of about 13°. The width-speed relationship in 3D is much stronger than that in 2D.

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“…Smart & Shea 1985;Vršnak & Gopalswamy 2002;Cantó et al 2005;Vršnak & Žic 2007;Borgazzi et al 2009;), or numerical MHD simulations (e.g. González-Esparza et al 2003;Manchester et al 2004;Odstrcil et al 2004;Smith et al 2009;Taktakishvili et al 2009). Performances of these forecasting procedures were analyzed in a number of validation studies (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Performances of these forecasting procedures were analyzed in a number of validation studies (e.g. Cho et al 2003;Dryer et al 2004;Oler 2004;McKenna-Lawlor et al 2006;Feng et al 2009;Smith et al 2009;Taktakishvili et al 2009), showing that the current prediction accuracy ranges around ±10 h and that sometimes errors can be even larger than one day.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of aerodynamic drag in propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections

Vršnak

Žic

Falkenberg

et al. 2010

A&A

122

115

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Context. The propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and the forecast of their arrival on Earth is one of the central issues of space weather studies. Aims. We investigate to which degree various ICME parameters (mass, size, take-off speed) and the ambient solar-wind parameters (density and velocity) affect the ICME Sun-Earth transit time. Methods. We study solutions of a drag-based equation of motion by systematically varying the input parameters. The analysis is focused on ICME transit times and 1 AU velocities. Results. The model results reveal that wide ICMEs of low masses adjust to the solar-wind speed already close to the sun, so the transit time is determined primarily by the solar-wind speed. The shortest transit times and accordingly the highest 1 AU velocities are related to narrow and massive ICMEs (i.e. high-density eruptions) propagating in high-speed solar wind streams. We apply the model to the Sun-Earth event associated with the CME of 25 July 2004 and compare the results with the outcome of the numerical MHD modeling.

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Validation of the coronal mass ejection predictions at the Earth orbit estimated by ENLIL heliosphere cone model

Cited by 83 publications

References 20 publications

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

COMPARISON BETWEEN 2D AND 3D PARAMETERS OF 306 FRONT-SIDE HALO CMEs FROM 2009 TO 2013

The role of aerodynamic drag in propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections

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