Validation of the Grobman model for successful vaginal birth after cesarean section in Jordanian women

Abstract

Background To validate both models of Grobman nomogram (The antenatal and the intrapartum model) for predicting successful intended Vaginal Birth After Caesarean delivery (VBAC) in a Jordanian population. Methods A retrospective study has identified all live, singleton, term, cephalic pregnancies with a previous lower segment cesarean section who opted for a Trial Of Labour After Caesarean Section (TOLAC) between January 2014 to December 2020. Five variables were used for the antenatal model, while ten variables were used for the intrapartum model. Two sets of patients were created: one for the antenatal model and the other for the intrapartum model. The predicted probability for each woman was calculated and compared with the successful VBAC for each category. The predictive ability was assessed with a receiver operating characteristic, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined. Results There were seven hundred and fourteen complete cases for the antenatal model and six hundred ninety-seven for the intrapartum model. Our population's overall number of VBAC is 83.89% for the antenatal group and 82.92% for the intrapartum group. The mean predicted probability for a successful intended VBAC using the antenatal and intrapartum models were 79.53 ± 13.47 and 78.64 ± 14.03, respectively. The antenatal and intrapartum predictive models ROC had an AUC of 65% (95% CI: 60%-71%) and 64% (95% CI: 58%-69%), respectively. Conclusions Both models are validated in the Jordanian population. Adapting the antenatal model as supporting evidence can lead to a higher rate of TOLAC.