Value certainty and choice confidence are multidimensional constructs that guide decision-making

Lee, Douglas G.; Hare, Todd A.

doi:10.3758/s13415-022-01054-4

Cited by 5 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 62 publications

(152 reference statements)

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“…Previous research has suggested that decisionmakers refine their value estimates for choice options during deliberation, prior to committing to the choice (Lee & Daunizeau, 2020, 2021. It has been shown that the predictive effect of dV on consistency is larger when dV is calculated using postchoice ratings (i.e., dV2) rather than prechoice ratings (Lee & Coricelli, 2020;Lee & Daunizeau, 2020, 2021Lee & Hare, 2023;Lee & Holyoak, 2021; similar results were also reported in Simon, Krawczyk, et al, 2004;Simon & Spiller, 2016). The present study replicates this finding.…”

Section: Choice-induced Changes In Preference Are Instrumental To Dec...supporting

confidence: 88%

“…We then assessed the relationship between choice difficulty and SoA by regressing SoA on |dV1|. As in previous studies (Lee & Coricelli, 2020; Lee & Daunizeau, 2020, 2021; Lee & Hare, 2023; Lee & Holyoak, 2021), |dV1| had a reliable negative relationship with SoA in every experimental condition (Table 2).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…Early accounts of this phenomenon held that people change their evaluations after making their choice, either to relieve the unpleasant feeling associated with cognitive dissonance (i.e., if they disliked some aspects of the option they chose, or liked some aspects of the option they rejected; Festinger, 1957), or to maintain a sense of self-consistency (i.e., they chose one option over the other, so they must like it better; Bem, 1967, 1972). More recent accounts of the SoA phenomenon hold that people change their evaluations during the choice process (i.e., while deliberating about which option to choose), and that such changes enable people to decide more accurately, more quickly, and more confidently (Lee & Coricelli, 2020; Lee & Daunizeau, 2020, 2021; Lee & Hare, 2023; Lee & Holyoak, 2021). A separate body of literature has shown that people adjust their evaluations of choice options in the direction of the emerging choice, as if the evidence in favor of one option gathers momentum and causes subsequent information to gravitate in the same direction (Glöckner et al, 2010; Holyoak & Simon, 1999; Simon et al, 2001; Simon, Krawczyk, et al, 2004; Simon, Snow, et al, 2004).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have shown that SoA is positively associated with choice confidence (Lee & Daunizeau, 2020, 2021Lee & Hare, 2023;Lee & Holyoak, 2021). The impact of SoA (if it occurs during deliberation) is to effectively make the choice easier prior to entering a response.…”

Section: Choice-induced Changes In Preference Are Instrumental To Dec...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SoA is based on the observation that the difference in the subjective value ratings that people assign to options in a choice pair is typically larger after the choice than before (i.e., the values “spread apart”). This effect is highly robust (e.g., Carlson & Russo, 2001; Chammat et al, 2017; Holyoak & Simon, 1999; Izuma et al, 2010, 2015; Lee & Coricelli, 2020; Lee & Daunizeau, 2020, 2021; Lee & Hare, 2023; Lee & Holyoak, 2021; Russo et al, 1996; Salti et al, 2014; Sharot et al, 2009, 2010, 2012; Voigt et al, 2017, 2019; see Enisman et al, 2021, for a meta-analysis).…”

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confidence: 98%

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Transient value refinements during deliberation facilitate choice.

Lee¹,

Holyoak²

2024

Decision

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After deciding among options, decision-makers tend to increase their evaluations of the chosen options and decrease their evaluations of the rejected options, resulting in a spreading of alternatives (SoA). There has been a long-standing debate as to whether SoA results from postchoice cognitive dissonance reduction or self-consistency augmentation, or whether it is related to processes that are instrumental in reaching a decision (or both). Here, we introduce a novel procedure that measures SoA implicitly during the process of subjective value-based decision-making. During the choice task, participants simultaneously provided value ratings for both options on offer on each trial, but before explicitly reporting their choices. The results clearly demonstrate that SoA does not occur only after choices have been reported. Furthermore, SoA seems to be instrumental to the choice process: It is associated with higher choice consistency, higher confidence, and lower response time. The SoA generated during choice deliberation is partially transient in nature, regressing toward baseline shortly afterward, but lingering at an intermediate level.

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Section: Choice-induced Changes In Preference Are Instrumental To Dec...supporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Choice-induced Changes In Preference Are Instrumental To Dec...mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 98%

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Transient value refinements during deliberation facilitate choice.

Lee¹,

Holyoak²

2024

Decision

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Confidence and risky decision-making in gambling disorder

Hoven,

Hirmas,

Engelmann

et al. 2023

JBA

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Background and aimsPeople with Gambling Disorder (GD) often make risky decisions and experience cognitive distortions about gambling. Moreover, people with GD have been shown to be overly confident in their decisions, especially when money can be won. Here we investigated if and how the act of making a risky choice with varying monetary stakes impacts confidence differently in patients with GD (n = 27) relative to healthy controls (HCs) (n = 30).MethodsWe used data from our previous mixed-gamble study, in which participants were given the choice of a certain option or a 50/50 gamble with potential gains or losses, after which they rated their confidence.ResultsWhile HCs were more confident when making certain than risky choices, GD patients were specifically more confident when making risky choices than certain choices. Notably, relative to HCs, confidence of patients with GD decreased more strongly with higher gain values when making a certain choice, suggesting a stronger fear of missing out or “anticipated regret” of missing out on potential gains when rejecting the risky choice.DiscussionThe current findings highlight the potential relevance of confidence and “regret” as cognitive mechanisms feeding into excessive risk-taking as seen in GD. Moreover, this study adds to the limited previous work investigating how confidence is affected in value-based risky contexts.

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Variability and accessibility of information guide gaze dynamics in decision-making

Lee

2023

Preprint

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Experimental research in decision-making often relies on tasks that provide participants with all the information they need to make their decisions. Here we consider the process by which decision-makers seek information about their choice alternatives when it is not immediately provided. Recent advances in computational theories have proposed that people will seek to process more information about options for which they are less certain about the value. Specifically, they will allocate more attention to options with lower certainty in order to increase their certainty by processing additional information. We tested this hypothesis with a behavioral and eye-tracking experiment in which participants observed pairs of random streams of numerical stimuli and were incentivized to report which stream was generated by the distribution with the greater mean. We induced uncertainty by manipulating the variance of the value distribution for each option. In addition, we randomly replaced some of the stimuli with meaningless letters. This decreased the accessibility of information about the options. The results show that people fixate more on options with lower accessibility and to a lesser extent options with greater value. Interestingly, this pattern changes across response time, with early fixations driven by variability and accessibility, and late fixations driven by value and accessibility. Moreover, people were more likely to choose options with greater accessibility, and they felt more confident about their choices when accessibility was greater. This research could help illuminate the process of information seeking to reduce uncertainty during choice deliberation.

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Value certainty and choice confidence are multidimensional constructs that guide decision-making

Cited by 5 publications

References 62 publications

Transient value refinements during deliberation facilitate choice.

Transient value refinements during deliberation facilitate choice.

Confidence and risky decision-making in gambling disorder

Variability and accessibility of information guide gaze dynamics in decision-making

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