Variabilidade climática no Agreste de Pernambuco e os desastres decorrentes dos extremos climáticos

Abstract

A B S T R A C TClimate change is a reality for the world's population and the evidence are part of our daily lives, with threats to the infrastructure of cities, decreased productivity in crops, changes in rivers and oceans. The objective of this study is to classify weather patterns in Agreste through Rain Anomaly Index (RAI), to characterize the severity of dry and moist years and analyze the disasters arising from climate variability. We selected 14 rain gauge stations distributed in the Agreste from 1963 to 2013. The annual RAI and the wet period were calculated. The survey of official data of disasters associated with extreme weather (dry and floods) of the 14 cities studied was conducted in 1963 to 2013, through the Integrated Information System of the Ministry of Integration of Disaster. The results indicated that the wet period corresponds to the months from February to July and the dry period from August to January. Through the RAI was diagnosed a change in the pattern of precipitation, showing that by the end of the 80s there is a higher frequency of wet years and that from the 90s there was a significant decrease in these years, i.e., the years dry now predominate in the region. In the drier classified official documents were issued decreeing state public and emergency disaster, caused by the drought and/or drought, with social impacts and huge losses in agriculture and livestock, in addition to human and pet supplies.

Rainfall variability in the Brazilian northeast biomes and their interactions with meteorological systems and ENSO via CHELSA product

“…These rainfalls above the climatological mean occurred in 1985 as a result of a La Niña categorized as weak according to the ONI index combined with positive TAV in the southern Atlantic. Both factors resulted in high NEB rainfall, with flooding records in several locations, mainly in the capitals of Piauí and Maranhão (Andrade et al, 2018;Chaves, Tavares, & de Andrade, 2017;De Oliveira, Guedes, & da Silva Costa, 2017;Pereira, Soares, Silva, de Assunção Montenegro, & de Souza, 2017).…”

Geoestatística aplicada à variabilidade espacial e padrões nas séries temporais da precipitação no agreste pernambucano

“…Entretanto, a relação entre El Niño e as secas no NEB não é unívoca (Kane, 1997;Sousa & Silva, 2013). Segundo Kane (1997citado por Freitas, 2005 A análise do comportamento das chuvas se torna importante uma vez que, possibilita detectar tendências ou alterações no clima, em escalas locais, regionais, estaduais, nacionais e continentais (Pereira et al, 2017). O estudo da tendência da precipitação e do índice de irregularidade Meteorológica (IIM) pode ser utilizado como uma ferramenta para auxiliar o acompanhamento climático e a variabilidade pluviométrica de uma determinada área, podendo auxiliar no gerenciamento agrícola e nos recursos hídricos e, então empreender ações de adaptação e mitigação.…”

Impactos gerados e a gestão da bacia do rio Capibaribe-PE

“…Pereira et al (2017) identificaram no Agreste de Pernambuco que a partir da década de 1990 houve uma diminuição da frequência dos anos classificados Muito Úmidos, e aumento dos anos Muito Secos, apontando uma modificação no padrão da precipitação, onde os anos secos passaram a predominar na região.…”