Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012

Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin; Peregon, Anna; Ciais, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Bastviken, David; Houweling, Sander; Janssens‐Maenhout, Greet; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Castaldi, Simona; Jackson, Robert B.; Alexe, Mihai; Arora, Vivek K.; Beerling, David J.; Bergamaschi, P.; Blake, Donald R.; Brailsford, Gordon; Bruhwiler, L.; Crévoisier, Cyril; Crill, Patrick; Covey, Kristofer; Frankenberg, Christian; Gedney, Nicola; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Ishizawa, Misa; Ito, Akihiko; Joos, Fortunat; Kim, Heon-Sook; Kleinen, Thomas; Krummel, P. B.; Lamarque, Jean‐François; Langenfelds, Ray L.; Locatelli, Robin; Machida, Toshinobu; Maksyutov, Shamil; Melton, Joe R.; Morino, Isamu; Naik, Vaishali; O’Doherty, Simon; Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W.; Patra, Prabir K.; Peng, Changhui; Peng, Shushi; Peters, Glen P.; Pison, Isabelle; Prinn, Ronald G.; Ramonet, Michel; Riley, William J.; Saito, Makoto; Santini, Monia; Schroeder, R.; Simpson, Isobel J.; Spahni, Renato; Takizawa, Atsushi; Thornton, Brett F.; Tian, Hanqin; Tohjima, Yasunori; Viovy, Nicolas; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Weiss, Ray F.; Wilton, David J.; Wiltshire, Andy; Worthy, Doug; Wunch, Debra; Xu, Xiyan; Yoshida, Yukio; Zhang, Bowen; Zhang, Zhen; Zhu, Qiuan

doi:10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017

Cited by 105 publications

(173 citation statements)

References 123 publications

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“…), reaching 1,820 ppb by 2012, with an increase rate of 5.2 ± 0.2 ppb/yr during 2008–2012 (mean ± SD; Saunois et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Approximately 10% of global CH 4 fluxes (35 Tg/yr) have been attributed to emissions from high-latitude wetlands north of 50°N (Sebacher et al 1985, Matthews and Fung 1987, Crill et al 1988, Fung et al 1991, Zhuang et al 2004, Thornton et al 2016. Emissions from natural wetlands are thought to be partially responsible for the recent rise in global CH 4 concentration (Kirschke et al 2013), reaching 1,820 ppb by 2012, with an increase rate of 5.2 AE 0.2 ppb/yr during 2008-2012 (mean AE SD; Saunois et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska

Lyu

Genet

et al. 2018

Ecological Applications

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Wetlands are critical terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska, covering ~177,000 km , an area greater than all the wetlands in the remainder of the United States. To assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO ) concentration, and fire regime on carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of Alaska, a modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used. Spatially explicit simulations were conducted at 1-km resolution for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). Simulations estimated that wetland ecosystems of Alaska lost 175 Tg carbon (C) in the historical period. Ecosystem C storage in 2009 was 5,556 Tg, with 89% of the C stored in soils. The estimated loss of C as CO and biogenic methane (CH ) emissions resulted in wetlands of Alaska increasing the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. Simulations for the projection period were conducted for six climate change scenarios constructed from two climate models forced under three CO emission scenarios. Ecosystem C storage averaged among climate scenarios increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 to 4.42 Tg C/yr. These increases were driven primarily by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than losses from increased decomposition and fire. The NPP increase was driven by CO fertilization (~5% per 100 parts per million by volume increase) and by increases in air temperature (~1% per °C increase). Increases in air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in biogenic CH emissions among the simulations (~15% per °C increase). Ecosystem CO sequestration offset the increase in CH emissions during the 21st century to decrease the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. However, beyond 2100, we expect that this forcing will ultimately increase as wetland ecosystems transition from being a sink to a source of atmospheric CO because of (1) decreasing sensitivity of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO , (2) increasing availability of soil C for decomposition as permafrost thaws, and (3) continued positive sensitivity of biogenic CH emissions to increases in soil temperature.

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“…), reaching 1,820 ppb by 2012, with an increase rate of 5.2 ± 0.2 ppb/yr during 2008–2012 (mean ± SD; Saunois et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska

Lyu

Genet

et al. 2018

Ecological Applications

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“…In this manuscript, the ensemble of top‐down studies provided by eight global inverse systems suggested a dominant contribution to the global emission increase from agriculture and waste (+10 [7–12] Tg CH 4 yr −1 ), wetlands (+6 [−4–16] Tg CH 4 yr −1 ), and fossil fuel‐related emissions (+7 [−2–16] Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) from 2000–2006 to 2008–2012. Saunois et al () also showed that the decrease of biomass burning emissions (−3 [−7–0] Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) could be consistent with the carbon isotopic signature. The uncertainties of these mean emission changes are, however, very significant as shown by the range inferred by eight inversions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Characteristics of CH₄ Vertical Profiles Observed in the West Siberian Lowland Over Surgut From 1993 to 2015 and Novosibirsk From 1997 to 2015

et al. 2017

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We have carried out monthly flask sampling using aircraft, in the altitude range of 0–7 km, over the boreal wetlands in Surgut (61°N, 73°E; since 1993) and a pine forest near Novosibirsk (55°N, 83°E; since 1997), both located in the West Siberian Lowland (WSL). The temporal variation of methane (CH4) concentrations at all altitudes at both sites exhibited an increasing trend with stagnation during 2000–2006 as observed globally from ground‐based networks. In addition to a winter maximum as seen at other remote sites in northern middle to high latitudes, another seasonal maximum was also observed in summer, particularly in the lower altitudes over the WSL, which could be attributed to emissions from the wetlands. Our measurements suggest that the vertical gradient at Surgut has been decreasing; the mean CH4 difference between 5.5 km and 1.0 km changed from 64 ± 5 ppb during 1995–1999 to 37 ± 3 ppb during 2009–2013 (mean ± standard error). No clear decline in the CH4 vertical gradient appeared at Novosibirsk. Simulations using an atmospheric chemistry‐transport model captured the observed decrease in the vertical CH4 gradient at Surgut when CH4 emissions from Europe decreased but increased from the regions south of Siberia, for example, East and South Asia. At Novosibirsk, the influence of the European emissions was relatively small. Our results also suggest that the regional emissions around the WSL did not change significantly over the period of our observations.

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“…Methane then began to rise again around 2006. AGAGE data and emission estimates for methane have appeared in multiple recent papers Kirschke et al, 2013;Loh et al, 2015;Patra et al, 2011;Thompson et al, 2015;Saunois et al, 2016Saunois et al, , 2017. Nitrous oxide is the third most important long-lived greenhouse gas (after CO 2 and CH 4 ) and the major source of ozone-depleting nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) in the stratosphere (Ravishankara et al, 2009 Huang et al (2008), Nevison et al (2011), Thompson et al (2013, b, c), and Saikawa et al (2014a using AGAGE and NOAA-ESRL data.…”

Section: Trends In Kyoto Protocol Gasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

History of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

Prinn

Weiss

Arduini

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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Abstract. We present the organization, instrumentation, datasets, data interpretation, modeling, and accomplishments of the multinational global atmospheric measurement program AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment). AGAGE is distinguished by its capability to measure globally, at high frequency, and at multiple sites all the important species in the Montreal Protocol and all the important non-carbon-dioxide (non-CO2) gases assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (CO2 is also measured at several sites). The scientific objectives of AGAGE are important in furthering our understanding of global chemical and climatic phenomena. They are the following: (1) to accurately measure the temporal and spatial distributions of anthropogenic gases that contribute the majority of reactive halogen to the stratosphere and/or are strong infrared absorbers (chlorocarbons, chlorofluorocarbons – CFCs, bromocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons – HCFCs, hydrofluorocarbons – HFCs and polyfluorinated compounds (perfluorocarbons – PFCs), nitrogen trifluoride – NF3, sulfuryl fluoride – SO2F2, and sulfur hexafluoride – SF6) and use these measurements to determine the global rates of their emission and/or destruction (i.e., lifetimes); (2) to accurately measure the global distributions and temporal behaviors and determine the sources and sinks of non-CO2 biogenic–anthropogenic gases important to climate change and/or ozone depletion (methane – CH4, nitrous oxide – N2O, carbon monoxide – CO, molecular hydrogen – H2, methyl chloride – CH3Cl, and methyl bromide – CH3Br); (3) to identify new long-lived greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases (e.g., SO2F2, NF3, heavy PFCs (C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, C7F16, and C8F18) and hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs; e.g., CH2 = CFCF3) have been identified in AGAGE), initiate the real-time monitoring of these new gases, and reconstruct their past histories from AGAGE, air archive, and firn air measurements; (4) to determine the average concentrations and trends of tropospheric hydroxyl radicals (OH) from the rates of destruction of atmospheric trichloroethane (CH3CCl3), HFCs, and HCFCs and estimates of their emissions; (5) to determine from atmospheric observations and estimates of their destruction rates the magnitudes and distributions by region of surface sources and sinks of all measured gases; (6) to provide accurate data on the global accumulation of many of these trace gases that are used to test the synoptic-, regional-, and global-scale circulations predicted by three-dimensional models; and (7) to provide global and regional measurements of methane, carbon monoxide, and molecular hydrogen and estimates of hydroxyl levels to test primary atmospheric oxidation pathways at midlatitudes and the tropics. Network Information and Data Repository: http://agage.mit.edu/data or http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ndps/alegage.html (https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/atg.db1001).

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Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012

Cited by 105 publications

References 123 publications

The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska

The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska

Temporal Characteristics of CH₄ Vertical Profiles Observed in the West Siberian Lowland Over Surgut From 1993 to 2015 and Novosibirsk From 1997 to 2015

History of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

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Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012

Cited by 105 publications

References 123 publications

The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska

The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska

Temporal Characteristics of CH4 Vertical Profiles Observed in the West Siberian Lowland Over Surgut From 1993 to 2015 and Novosibirsk From 1997 to 2015

History of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Temporal Characteristics of CH₄ Vertical Profiles Observed in the West Siberian Lowland Over Surgut From 1993 to 2015 and Novosibirsk From 1997 to 2015