Variability of extreme events in the Colombian Pacific and Caribbean catchment basins

Abstract

This paper analyses the behavior of extreme events of surface precipitation and temperature inside the Pacific and Caribbean Catchment Basins in Colombia using several datasets such as observations, reconstructed data, NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses and data from the regional model REMO. We use an extreme value method that selects the time series excesses over a nonstationary threshold and adjusts them to a generalized Pareto distribution. The goodness of fit is evaluated through a test that includes the Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling statistics and the p values generated by parametric bootstrap resampling. The test not only evaluates the goodness of fit but also the threshold choice. The parameters are presented in maps that allow recognition of the features of the extreme behaviour inside the catchment basins, and differences and similarities between them. Maps of return periods for the maximum extreme events are also presented. A strong influence of the El Niño-Southern oscillation on the extreme events of both temperature and precipitation is found in the two catchment basins. © 2012 Springer-Verlag

Streamflow Variability in Colombian Pacific Basins and Their Teleconnections with Climate Indices

“…Consequently, the rainfall and streamflow are reduced in the ARB and PRB. On the contrary, the LN presents the opposite anomaly patterns, as documented by Hoyos et al [62,88] and Arias et al [35].…”

“…The 1997-1998 EN had a particularly strong effect on ecosystems, agriculture, energy production, and other sectors of economic development in Colombia (IDEAM, 2002). The 2010-2011 LN caused flooding, storms, and landslides, which mainly affected the Colombian Pacific region [62,88]. During 1997-1998 EN, northern areas of South America suddenly received less rainfall, conversely to the increased rainfall recorded in the south-easterly part of the continent due to the presence of an anomalous Walker cell with its descending branch between 10 • N and 10 • S in the South American continent and its ascending branch over the eastern Pacific Ocean [33].…”

Spatio-temporal analysis of the droughts in Cali, Colombia and their primary relationships with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between 1971 and 2011

“…In the past 40 years , it has experienced losses due to socio-natural disasters estimated at more than USD 7.100 billions (Campos et al, 2012). The rainy period of 2010-2012 and the La Niña phenomenon (Blunden et al, 2011) affected 1027 municipalities (Sedano-Cruz et al, 2013), four million people and caused economic losses of approximately USD 7.8 billions (Hoyos et al, 2013a). On the other hand, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of 1997-1998 generated damages to the agricultural sector estimated at more than USD 101 millions in the year 2000 in addition to 124 million USD in indirect losses produced by adverse effects on the balance of payments and the absence of exports (Campos et al, 2012).…”

Streamflow Intensification Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the Atrato River Basin, Northwestern Colombia

“…However, other factors may also have a significant contribution. Some of them are the orography of the Andes, thermal driven local circulations [3][4][5][6][7][8][9], earth-atmosphere feedback processes [10], atmospheric rivers [7], the Chocó Jet and the associated mesoscale convective systems [11,12], and ocean-atmospheric processes that occur in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans [13][14][15][16][17].…”

“…The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the interannual time scales is the main ocean-atmospheric coupled phenomenon that affects the rainfall distribution in tropical regions and causes droughts and/or floods in the watersheds involved [15,18,19]. Several studies have documented the ENSO effects on rainfall and streamflow in northern and northwestern South America (SA) [1,18,[20][21][22][23][24][25] with consequent negative impacts on the economy, biodiversity and human health in Colombia [6,25,26]. The ENSO warm phase or El Niño (EN) is associated with negative anomalies of the rainfall, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and streamflow, mainly in central, northern, and western Colombia [1,20,25,27,28], which are caused by variations in both the Walker and Hadley cells [29][30][31].…”