Variability of recurrence interval and single-event slip for surface-rupturing earthquakes in New Zealand

Nicol, Andy; Robinson, Russell; Dissen, R. J. Van; Harvison, Adrian

doi:10.1080/00288306.2015.1127822

Cited by 41 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(146 reference statements)

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“…Our results, showing that COVt is generally greater than COVs, agree with those that have been reported in recent studies (e.g., Nicol et al, 2016;Zielke, 2018). This discrepancy may reflect the natural characteristics of earthquake recurrence but can be, in part, attributed to the varying abilities of geological and geomorphic markers to record an earthquake with small displacements or short recurrence intervals.…”

Section: Inter-event Variability In Coseismic Slip At Oidesupporting

confidence: 91%

Evaluating variability in coseismic slips of paleo-earthquakes using a flight of displaced terraces across the Kamishiro fault, Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, central Japan

Takahashi

Toda

2020

Preprint

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Examining the regularity between events during an earthquake slip leads to an understanding of earthquake recurrence and provides the basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Generally, scientists use systematic analysis of three-dimensional paleoseismic trenches and numerous offset markers along fault zones to study slip history. Flights of displaced terraces have also been used, under the assumption that the number of earthquakes contributing to the observed cumulative slip is known. This study presents a Monte Carlo-based approach to estimating slip variability from a series of displaced terraces when such an assumption cannot be satisfied. First, we mapped fluvial terraces across the Kamishiro Fault, which is an intra-plate reverse fault in central Japan, and systematically measured the cumulative net slip in the mapped terraces. By combining these measurements with the age of the paleoearthquakes, we estimated the amount of net slip for the penultimate event (PE) and antepenultimate event (APE) to be 1.5 ± 0.2 and 2.7 ± 0.4 m, respectively. The APE slip was twice that of the PE slip and 2.5 times larger than the most recent event, the Nagano-ken-hokubu earthquake, and measured 1.2 ± 0.1 m. This suggests that the APE ruptured along the entire length of the 26 km-long Kamishiro Fault or that there were multiple faults involving adjacent segments. As we are unsure how many earthquakes had occurred since the oldest terrace was formed, we assumed three cases based on available paleoseismic records. In each case, we calculated the slip that could reproduce the cumulative slips within a reasonable range of observed terrace offsets and then estimated the coefficient of variation for coseismic slips (COVs) of paleoearthquakes. The resulting COVs typically fell into the range of 0.3 to 0.5, indicating that, over the last few thousand years, the Kamishiro Fault did not regularly behave as it had done before the 2014 event. Instead, there were large variations in the fault’s coseismic slip, as suggested by the global dataset. Although we acknowledge that our approach may be oversimplified, the Monte Carlo-based approach should help assess the regularity of earthquakes from displaced terraces where limited data are available.

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Section: Inter-event Variability In Coseismic Slip At Oidesupporting

confidence: 91%

Evaluating variability in coseismic slips of paleo-earthquakes using a flight of displaced terraces across the Kamishiro fault, Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, central Japan

Takahashi

Toda

2020

Preprint

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“…Variable fault recurrence intervals are a common feature of other extensional environments (e.g., Akcar et al, ; Friedrich et al, ; Nicol et al, ) and already documented for the Paganica fault, rupturing in the 2009 Mw 6.1 L'Aquila earthquake (Cinti et al, ) in the central Apennines. Such temporal variability could be the result of interactions between active faults within distributed fault networks, despite the fact that the tectonic loading rate may be constant in time and space (e.g., Cowie et al, ; Marzocchi et al, ; Marzocchi & Melini, ; Robinson, ; Robinson et al, ; Wedmore et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

22‐kyr‐Long Record of Surface Faulting Along the Source of the 30 October 2016 Earthquake (Central Apennines, Italy), From Integrated Paleoseismic Data Sets

et al. 2019

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We integrate paleoseismic data sets along the Mt. Vettore‐Mt. Bove normal fault system rupturing at the surface in the 30 October 2016 Norcia earthquake. Through the analysis of new trenches from this work and a review of the preexisting data, we correlate events among trench sites along antithetic and synthetic fault splays. We recognize seven M 6.5, 2016 Norcia‐type (or larger) surface‐faulting events in the last ~22 kyr, including 2016. Before 2016, one event occurred in the past two millennia (260–575 CE) and possibly corresponds to the event damaging Rome in 443 or 484/508 CE. Three previous events occurred between 10590 and 415 BCE, whereas the two oldest ones date between 19820 and 16540 BCE. The average recurrence time is 3,360–3,640 years for the last ~22 kyr and 1,220–1,970 years for the last ~4 kyr. We infer a minimum dip‐slip rate of 0.26–0.38 mm/year on the master fault in the central portion of the Mt. Vettore–Mt. Bove normal fault system and a dip‐slip rate of at least 0.10 mm/year on the southernmost portion. We infer a Middle–Late Pleistocene inception of the long‐term scarp of the investigated splays. The along‐strike variation of slip rates well reproduces the trend of the 2016 surface slip; thus, the time window exposed in the trenches is representative for the present fault activity. Based on trenching data, different earthquake rupture scenarios should be also considered for local hazard assessment.

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“…Our dense offset database provides a robust basis to identify the geomorphic markers most appropriate to date the identified earthquakes. Along with the measures of the largest and mean WP earthquake slips we provide here, this dating should help estimating the probability of rupture of the WP fault over the next 100 yrs 7,28,55 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Repeated giant earthquakes on the Wairarapa fault, New Zealand, revealed by Lidar-based paleoseismology

Manighetti

Perrin

Dominguez

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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The Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikoura earthquake ruptured the Kekerengu-Needle fault resulting in the loading of its eastern continuation, the Wairarapa fault. Since the most recent earthquake on Wairarapa occurred in 1855 and is one of the strongest continental earthquakes ever observed, it is critical to assess the seismic potential of the Wairarapa fault, which might be prone to break. Using Lidar data, we examine its bare-earth morphology and reveal ~650 mostly undiscovered offset geomorphic markers. Using a code we developed in earlier work, we automatically measure the lateral and vertical offsets of these markers providing more than 7000 well constrained measurements. The data document the lateral and vertical slip profiles of the 1855 earthquake for the first time and show its total slip reached ~20 m at surface. Modeling the entire offset dataset reveals 7 prior earthquakes ruptured the entire fault, each similarly producing 16.9 ± 1.4 m dextral slip and ~0.6 m vertical slip at surface in the same central bend zone of the fault. Thus, the Wairarapa fault repeatedly produced giant earthquakes and is likely able to produce a similarly strong forthcoming event. The extreme large size of the Wairarapa earthquakes questions our understanding of earthquake physics.

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Variability of recurrence interval and single-event slip for surface-rupturing earthquakes in New Zealand

Cited by 41 publications

References 90 publications

Evaluating variability in coseismic slips of paleo-earthquakes using a flight of displaced terraces across the Kamishiro fault, Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, central Japan

Evaluating variability in coseismic slips of paleo-earthquakes using a flight of displaced terraces across the Kamishiro fault, Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, central Japan

22‐kyr‐Long Record of Surface Faulting Along the Source of the 30 October 2016 Earthquake (Central Apennines, Italy), From Integrated Paleoseismic Data Sets

Repeated giant earthquakes on the Wairarapa fault, New Zealand, revealed by Lidar-based paleoseismology

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