Variability of summer precipitation over Eastern China during the last millennium

Shen, Caiming; Wang, W.-C.; Peng, Yong; Xu, Ying; Zheng, Jie

doi:10.5194/cp-5-129-2009

Cited by 33 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…3 we provide a qualitative sketch of regional hydroclimatic anomalies for land areas during the centuries spanning the MCA, as reported in several studies, a representative sample of which is listed in the MCA, as compared to the LIA (Trouet et al 2009;Luterbacher et al 2011 and references therein). 3) Proxy records suggest that the South Asian monsoon was more drought-prone during the LIA than during the MCA (Shen et al 2009;Berkelhammer et al 2010), with a tendency to relatively wet conditions during the MCA in some regions (e.g. Sinha et al 2007;Zhang et al 2008), although there does not seem to be a clear and well-organized anomaly pattern during the MCA (Graham et al 2011).…”

Section: ) Parts Of the Tropics Such As The Equatorial Easternmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Climate in Medieval Times Revisited

Díaz

Trigo

Hughes

et al. 2011

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

146

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The increase in high-resolution proxy records over expanding areas of the globe helps deepen understanding of the unusual climate patterns-and the forcing mechanisms responsible for them-during the years 950 to 1400. C limate in medieval times, a period usually understood to extend from A.D. ~950 to ~1400, is of considerable interest to students of modern and future climate. This is because the period differs from recent centuries mainly by predating the Industrial Revolution with its associated changes in the composition of the atmosphere and oceans and the nature of the land surface (Hughes and Diaz 1994; Crowley and Lowery 2000; Bradley et al. 2003a,b). In this sense it represents an appealing, but imperfect "control case" for the unintended global climate experiment that has resulted from industrial and agricultural development and population growth.In order to stimulate a synthesis of recent work on these topics, we convened a meeting of international experts to consider the following issues: 1) What were some of the key regional patterns of climatic anomalies during medieval times derived from the proxy climate records and from model simulations, and how do they compare with the twentieth-century patterns? 2) Recognizing that multiple proxy climate records are needed to constrain as much as possible the spatial and temporal variability of climate, what do recent studies using powerful statistical methods tell us about the timing and geographic coverage of the major features of climate in medieval times? 3) A number of numerical simulations using climate models of varying complexity and external forcing histories have been completed in the past few years. What do the latest model results tell us about geographic patterns and temporal characteristics of the simulated climate of this period?

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Section: ) Parts Of the Tropics Such As The Equatorial Easternmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Climate in Medieval Times Revisited

Díaz

Trigo

Hughes

et al. 2011

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

146

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Numerous reconstructions in this class have been published, for instance D-W series for 120 subregions across China from 1470-2000 CE (CMA, 1981;Zhang et al, 2003), a regional D-W dataset from 960-1992 CE (Zhang et al, 1997), a 1000-year D-W dataset for the Guanzhong Plain (Hao et al, 2017), the history of moisture conditions for the last 2000 years (Gong and Hameed, 1991), D-W series for 63 sites since 137 BCE (Zhang, 1996), and a relatively new D-W dataset for the period 501-2000 CE that has been subsequently extended to cover the last 2000 years (Zheng et al, 2006(Zheng et al, , 2014. The characteristics of droughts and floods based on these records have been extensively studied, such as the frequency, severity, spatial patterns, and decadal to centennial variability of hydroclimate, as well as the relationship between D-W indices and temperature (e.g., Wang and Zhao, 1979;Zhang and Crowley, 1989;Yan et al, 1992;Qian et al, 2003;Shen et al, 2009;PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013).…”

Section: Asiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

Smerdon¹,

Luterbacher²,

Phipps³

et al. 2017

Clim. Past

104

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Abstract. Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

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“…Precipitation data show significant periodicities at 20-30 and 60 years as well as on longer timescales. Shen et al (2009) used measurements of recent decades, 1500-year-long proxy data and model simulations to study the temporal and spatial variability of summer precipitation over East China during the last millennium, with a focus on the middle and lower YR valley (MLYRV) and NC. On the interannual scale, 2-3-year and 5-7-year cycles, the typical TBO (tropospheric biennial oscillation) and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) signals, are well evident in observational data over the MLYRV and NC.…”

Section: S Alessio Et Al: Temperature and Precipitation In Northeasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and precipitation in Northeast China during the last 150 years: relationship to large-scale climatic variability

et al. 2014

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Abstract. The analysis of two historical time series of temperature and precipitation in Northeast China, spanning, respectively, 1870-2004 and 1841-2004, performed by continuous wavelet transform and other classical and advanced spectral methods, is presented here. Both variables show a particular trend and oscillations of about 85, 60, 35 and 20 years that are highly significant, with a phase opposition at the centennial scale and at the 20-year scale. The analysis of the four temperature series relative to single seasons shows that the 20-year cycle is typical of the summer monsoon season, while the 35-year cycle is most evident in winter. The cycles of ∼ 60 years and longer are present in all seasons. The centennial variation of temperature and precipitation describes well the 1970-1980 transition between a period of relatively strong East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), corresponding to high precipitation and relatively cool temperatures in Northeast China, and a conditions of weak EASM (low precipitation and warm temperatures). The connection of the detected local variations with large-scale climatic variability is deduced from the comparison with different climatic records (Northern Hemisphere temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indexes).

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Variability of summer precipitation over Eastern China during the last millennium

Cited by 33 publications

References 58 publications

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Climate in Medieval Times Revisited

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Climate in Medieval Times Revisited

Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

Temperature and precipitation in Northeast China during the last 150 years: relationship to large-scale climatic variability

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