Variability of the start of the growing season in Fennoscandia, 1982–2002

Karlsen, Stein Rune; Solheim, I.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Høgda, Kjell Arild; Wielgolaski, F. E.; Tømmervik, Hans

doi:10.1007/s00484-007-0091-x

Cited by 97 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Fennoscandia is one of the regions of the world where the distance between the arctic and the nemoral zones is shortest [2], and this gives a unique opportunity to both observe and assess climatic change. In Fennoscandia, as well as Northern Europe, advancements of phenological events in spring and, to a lesser degree, in autumn have been recorded in recent decades (e.g., [5][6][7][8][9]). Karlsen et al [10], Xu et al [1] and Bi et al [11] have also observed the same pattern in Northern Europe as elsewhere in the northern lands (>50°N ), but found a lesser increase of the length of the growing season (photosynthetic active period) in the northern parts of Fennoscandia compared with the southern parts of the same area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Karlsen et al [10], Xu et al [1] and Bi et al [11] have also observed the same pattern in Northern Europe as elsewhere in the northern lands (>50°N ), but found a lesser increase of the length of the growing season (photosynthetic active period) in the northern parts of Fennoscandia compared with the southern parts of the same area. It is well known [9,[12][13][14][15][16][17] that the spring temperature is the dominating factor for explaining the onset of the growing season in Fennoscandia. Xu et al [1] also showed that the onset of the growing season was significantly correlated with the spring temperatures in the circumpolar and circumboreal areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Xu et al [1] also showed that the onset of the growing season was significantly correlated with the spring temperatures in the circumpolar and circumboreal areas. So far, there are three types of approaches for detecting the start of the growing season for vegetation [18]: (a) the conventional phenology approach observing the phenology of individual plants or tree stands [12,13,17,19]; (b) the land surface phenology approach using satellite-derived growing season metrics retrieved from various vegetation index data, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from, e.g., the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) [9,[20][21][22]; (c) temperature, solar radiation and water availability are assumed to be the key factors that control plant phenology. Statistical, mechanistic and theoretical approaches have often been used for the parameterization of plant phenology models describing the response to these key factors [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Experiences from, e.g., Karlsen et al [9] and Luo et al [23] showed that the land surface phenology approach using satellite-derived growing season metrics is a promising and reliable measure. In Karlsen et al [9], the standard deviation between surface phenology data and NDVI-based data for the start of the growing season was shown to be 8.2 days.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in the Start of the Growing Season in Fennoscandia 1982–2011

2013

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Global temperature is increasing, and this is affecting the vegetation phenology in many parts of the world. In Fennoscandia, as well as Northern Europe, the advances of phenological events in spring have been recorded in recent decades. In this study, we analyzed the start of the growing season within five different vegetation regions in Fennoscandia using the 30-year Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g dataset. We applied a previously developed pixel-specific Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) threshold method, adjusted it to the NDVI3g data and analyzed trends within the different regions. Results show a warming trend with an earlier start of the growing season of 11.8 ± 2.0 days (p < 0.01) for the whole area. However, there are large regional differences, and the warming/trend towards an earlier start of the growing season is most significant in the southern regions (19.3 ± 4.7 days, p < 0.01 in the southern oceanic region), while the start was stable or modest earlier (two to four days; not significant) in the northern regions. To look for temporal variations in the trends, we divided the 30-year period into three separate decadal time periods. Results show significantly more change/trend towards an earlier start of the growing season in the first period compared to the two last. In the second and third period, the trend towards an earlier start of the growing season slowed down, and in two of the regions, the trend towards an earlier start of the growing season was even reversed during the last decade.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in the Start of the Growing Season in Fennoscandia 1982–2011

2013

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“…greenness) in the Northern Hemisphere, including the Sahel (Fensholt et al, 2009;Karlsen et al, 2007;Slayback et al, 2003;. Other studies based on phenology and temperature observations from stations have also confirmed a greenness trend (Sparks et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Inter-annual and seasonal trends of vegetation condition in the Upper Blue Nile (Abay) Basin: dual-scale time series analysis

2015

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Abstract.A long-term decline in ecosystem functioning and productivity, often called land degradation, is a serious environmental challenge to Ethiopia that needs to be understood so as to develop sustainable land use strategies. This study examines inter-annual and seasonal trends of vegetation cover in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) or Abbay Basin. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-based Global Inventory, Monitoring, and Modeling Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used for long-term vegetation trend analysis at low spatial resolution. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data (MOD13Q1) were used for medium-scale vegetation trend analysis. Harmonic analyses and non-parametric trend tests were applied to both GIMMS NDVI and MODIS NDVI (2001-2011 data sets. Based on a robust trend estimator (Theil-Sen slope), most parts of the UBN ( ∼ 77 %) showed a positive trend in monthly GIMMS NDVI, with a mean rate of 0.0015 NDVI units (3.77 % yr −1 ), out of which 41.15 % of the basin depicted significant increases (p < 0.05), with a mean rate of 0.0023 NDVI units (5.59 % yr −1 ) during the period. However, the MODIS-based vegetation trend analysis revealed that about 36 % of the UBN showed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.05) over the period 2001-2011 at an average rate of 0.0768 NDVI yr −1 . This indicates that the greening trend of the vegetation condition was followed by decreasing trend since the mid-2000s in the basin, which requires the attention of land users and decision makers. Seasonal trend analysis was found to be very useful to identify changes in vegetation condition that could be masked if only inter-annual vegetation trend analysis was performed. Over half (60 %) of the Abay Basin was found to exhibit significant trends in seasonality over the 25-year period (1982-2006). About 17 and 16 % of the significant trends consisted of areas experiencing a uniform increase in NDVI throughout the year and extended growing season, respectively. These areas were found primarily in shrubland and woodland regions. The study demonstrated that integrated analysis of inter-annual and intra-annual trends based on GIMMS and MODIS enables a more robust identification of changes in vegetation condition.

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Habitat–performance relationships of a large mammal on a predator‐free island dominated by humans

Allen

Dorey

Malmsten

et al. 2016

Ecology and Evolution

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The demographic consequences of changes in habitat use driven by human modification of landscape, and/or changes in climate, are important for any species. We investigated habitat–performance relationships in a declining island population of a large mammal, the moose (Alces alces), in an environment that is predator‐free but dominated by humans. We used a combination of demographic data, knowledge of habitat selection, and multiannual movement data of female moose (n = 17) to understand how space use patterns affect fecundity and calf survival. The calving rate was 0.64 and was similar to calving rates reported in other populations. Calf survival was 0.22 (annually) and 0.32 (postsummer), which are particularly low compared to other populations where postsummer survival is typically above 0.7. Home ranges were mainly composed of arable land (>40%), and selection for arable land was higher in winter than in summer, which contrasts with previous studies. Females that spent more time in broadleaf forest in the summer prior to the rut had higher fecundity rates, while more time spent in arable land resulted in lower fecundity rates. Females that spent more time in thicket/scrubland habitats during winter had lower calf survival, while females that had higher use of mixed forests tended to have higher calf survival. The dominance, and subsequent use, of suboptimal foraging habitats may lead to poor body condition of females at parturition, which may lower calf body weights and affect the mother's ability to lactate. In addition, our results indicated that the growing season has advanced significantly in recent decades, which may be causing a mismatch between parturition and optimal resource availability. These effects may exacerbate the female's ability to meet the energetic demands of lactation. Therefore, the observed low calf survival appears to be caused by a combination of factors related to current land use and may also be due to changing vegetation phenology. These results have important implications for the management of species in human‐dominated landscapes in the face of climate change, and for an increased understanding of how species may adapt to future land use and climate change.

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Variability of the start of the growing season in Fennoscandia, 1982–2002

Cited by 97 publications

References 39 publications

Trends in the Start of the Growing Season in Fennoscandia 1982–2011

Trends in the Start of the Growing Season in Fennoscandia 1982–2011

Inter-annual and seasonal trends of vegetation condition in the Upper Blue Nile (Abay) Basin: dual-scale time series analysis

Habitat–performance relationships of a large mammal on a predator‐free island dominated by humans

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