Variability of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in China

Shan, Kaiyue; Yu, Xing

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0031.1

Cited by 37 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Shan and Yu (2021) confirmed the increasing trend in landfall frequency of TCs over EC in recent decades, but reported a decreasing trend in the annual TC landfalls in SC. The opposite variations of TC landfalls in the two adjacent regions were further reported to be phenomenally independent (Shan and Yu, 2021). They attributed the variations to the significant changes in the TC genesis induced by the decreased relative vorticity and increased vertical wind shear over the WNP (Shan and Yu, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 75%

“…In contrast, the changes in the landfall frequency of TCs making landfall in SC were less apparent (Li et al, 2017). Shan and Yu (2021) confirmed the increasing trend in landfall frequency of TCs over EC in recent decades, but reported a decreasing trend in the annual TC landfalls in SC. The opposite variations of TC landfalls in the two adjacent regions were further reported to be phenomenally independent (Shan and Yu, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…Previous studies were mainly carried out in specific regions. However, few of them focused on investigating the difference and relationship between changes in TC landfall frequency in the individual regions of China (Li et al, 2017;Shan and Yu, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The opposite variations of TC landfalls in the two adjacent regions were further reported to be phenomenally independent (Shan and Yu, 2021). They attributed the variations to the significant changes in the TC genesis induced by the decreased relative vorticity and increased vertical wind shear over the WNP (Shan and Yu, 2021). However, for two adjacent coastal regions in China, it is hard for the variations in TCs' landfalls in EC and SC to be independent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Enhanced understanding of changes in tropical cyclones’ landfall frequency over mainland China

Li²,

Zhao³

et al. 2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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The climatological characteristics and interannual variations of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in mainland China during the peak TC seasons (July–October) from 1980 to 2020 are examined using the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) best-track dataset. There were 270 TCs landfalling in mainland China during the study period, with 226 TCs landfalling in South China (SC) and 44 TCs landfalling in East China (EC). During 1980–2020, the number of TCs affecting mainland China gradually decreased, although the trend is not significant. The number of TCs impacting SC is experiencing a significant decrease, while the number of TC affecting EC is stable. Based on the change-point analysis, the TC landfall frequency in mainland China and SC incurred significant decreases in 1995/1996 and 1996/1997, respectively. The significant reduction in the number of landfalling TCs over SC and the insignificant reduction in the TC landfall frequency over mainland China are mainly due to the great reduction in the TC formation frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP). Meanwhile, the yearly mean of TCs’ landfalling latitudes is moving northward slightly, possibly linked to the slight poleward shift of their genesis locations. A large area of negative anomalies in the lower-tropospheric absolute vorticity and positive variations in the vertical wind shear (VWS) over the tropical WNP are possibly responsible for the reduction in TC genesis over the WNP. Moreover, the apparent opposite anomalies of the two variables over the region north of 20°N and south of 20°N might contribute to the slight poleward shift of genesis locations of landfalling TCs during the 41 years. The variations in the large-scale steering flow are favorable for more TCs moving northwestward and making landfall in EC than before. Meanwhile, the decrease in TC landfall frequency over mainland China is found to be significantly correlated to the pronounced warming over the tropical Indian Ocean.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Enhanced understanding of changes in tropical cyclones’ landfall frequency over mainland China

Li²,

Zhao³

et al. 2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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show abstract

“…Recent studies by Shan and Yu (2020, 2021) pointed out that the La Niña‐like pattern could influence TC occurrence frequency over the low latitude through modulating the large‐scale dynamical environmental conditions like relative vorticity and vertical wind shear by changing the zonal Walker circulation, which leads to increasing landfall TCs in southeastern China in recent decades. It is also possible that the thermodynamic effect of the SST may play an equivalently important role as that of the circulation change.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Track Change on the Inconsistent Poleward Migration of Typhoon Activity

Guo

Tan

2022

JGR Atmospheres

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Tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) positions have been reported to migrate poleward globally during the last several decades. However, during the TC peak season, the trend of TC LMI position over the western North Pacific (WNP) is not as robust as that of genesis position. In this study, we found that the TC track change plays important roles in decreasing the genesis‐to‐LMI latitude distance (G2LD), which therefore leads to the inconsistent long‐term trends of genesis and LMI positions. A statistical approach was applied to quantitatively estimate the contributions by TC track change to the G2LD trend. The results show that the increase of near‐land formed short‐track TCs and the decrease of northwestward moving and eastward posited recurving TCs combined to make the largest contribution to the decreasing trend of the G2LD and thus to the insignificant long‐term trend of LMI position during peak season. Such TC track changes are closely related to the La Niña‐like warming pattern over the Pacific. The northeastward retreatment of the western Pacific subtropical high also plays an important role in reducing the northwestward moving TCs and increasing the recurving TCs over the northwestern WNP. Applying the same statistical approach to TC genesis positions indicates that the decrease of low‐latitude formed TCs makes the largest contribution to the poleward migration of genesis position, and the increase of high‐latitude formed TCs takes the second place. These low‐latitude formed TCs are mainly featured by northwestward moving and recurving tracks.

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Increased threat of strong typhoons along the Pacific coast of Japan: Combined effect of track change and seasonal advance

Shen,

Gu,

Wang

et al. 2024

Atmospheric Science Letters

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This study analyses the landfall intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting the Pacific coast of Japan and found that the proportion of strong typhoons increased significantly in the second 22 years from 1977 to 2020. With an objective cluster analysis of TC tracks, one could isolate a cluster of TCs originating from the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), which plays a dominant role in increasing landfalls of strong typhoons. These TCs are characterized by a long‐recurving track and could achieve significantly higher intensity and larger size. Further analysis of TC trajectories and the environmental steering flow show a greater tendency for TCs originating from the southeastern WNP to approach the Pacific coast of Japan, even though there was a dramatic decrease in TC genesis number during autumn. Meanwhile, a notable earlier onset of strong typhoons occurred within this cluster of TCs due to more favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in summer. The results of this study emphasize the impacts of TC track change and seasonal advance of strong typhoons on the variation of intensity and potential destructiveness of landfalling TCs.

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Variability of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in China

Cited by 37 publications

References 36 publications

Enhanced understanding of changes in tropical cyclones’ landfall frequency over mainland China

Enhanced understanding of changes in tropical cyclones’ landfall frequency over mainland China

Influence of Track Change on the Inconsistent Poleward Migration of Typhoon Activity

Increased threat of strong typhoons along the Pacific coast of Japan: Combined effect of track change and seasonal advance

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