Quantitative real-time PCR methods are increasingly being applied for the enumeration of toxic cyanobacteria in the environment. However, to justify the use of real-time PCR quantification as a monitoring tool, significant correlations between genotype abundance and actual toxin concentrations are required. In the present study, we aimed to explain the concentrations of three structural variants of the hepatotoxin microcystin ( During the last decade, genetic methods have significantly increased our understanding of the distribution of genes that are involved in the production of toxins within cyanobacteria that occur in fresh and brackish water (45). Although genetic methods can indicate only the potential risk of toxin synthesis and do not provide information about the actual toxin concentrations, quantitative real-time PCR has been increasingly applied for monitoring the toxin-producing genotypes of cyanobacteria in water (26,33,44). The development of real-time PCR methods was driven primarily by its potential (i) as an early-warning tool as well as to monitor toxin-producing cyanobacteria and (ii) to identify those factors that lead to a dominance/repression of toxin-producing genotypes versus nontoxic genotypes. For the first aim, it is essential that the abundance of toxin-producing cyanobacteria can be related to the concentration of the respective toxic substance in water. A few studies showed that the concentration of certain toxic genotypes was linearly related to the respective toxin concentrations, e.g., for the most common group of hepatotoxins, the microcystins (MCs) (7,12,14), and for the related nodularin (19). Both microcystins and nodularins are known to be potent inhibitors of eukaryotic protein phosphatases 1 and 2A, resulting in a health hazard to humans and the environment (9). In contrast, no correlation was found (37, 50), or even the opposite was reported, by other studies, i.e., that the measurement of microcystin-producing genotypes is not a satisfactory method for use in monitoring programs in order to predict the toxic risk associated with cyanobacterial proliferation (3). For microcystins, these contrasting results may be due to several reasons: (i) several genera producing microcystins frequently coexist in water bodies, and therefore, not all microcystin producers may have been identified; (ii) the semilogarithmic calibration curves limit the accuracy in estimations of genotype numbers and proportions (for example, the only laboratory comparison carried out so far revealed that among the three laboratories tested, the proportions of toxic genotypes were overestimated or underestimated by 0 to 72% and 0 to 50%, respectively [42]); and (iii) inactive mutants that contain the respective genes, however, which have been inactivated in toxin production through the insertion of transposable elements, may co-occur and decrease toxin production in a given population (6). Nevertheless, the real-time PCR technique is the only quantitative technique available for estimating the proportion of...