Variation in Seasonal Precipitation over Gaza (Palestine) and Its Sensitivity to Teleconnection Patterns

Ajjur, Salah Basem; Al-Ghamdi, Sami G.

doi:10.3390/w13050667

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The most recent global research covering the complete 20th century around the basin did not detect any generalized negative or significant trends (Peña‐Angulo et al, 2020). Moreover, at more local scales, significant positive trends have been found in recent years, both in western (Chargui et al, 2018; Nouaceur & Murărescu, 2016) and eastern areas (Ajjur & Sami, 2021; Kafle & Bruins, 2009; Nashwan et al, 2019). These can sometimes be attributed to the increase of extreme events (Benabdelouahab et al, 2020; Hadri et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

MOPREDAS_century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020

Gonzalez‐Hidalgo

Beguerı́a

Peña‐Angulo

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Due to its geographical location in the western Mediterranean region, the Iberian Peninsula involves a challenge for current climatic conditions and future projections. In this study we analysed monthly precipitation trends over mainland Spain from 1916 to 2020 by using the new MOPREDAS_century database. This database combines information from the Spanish Meteorological Agency's archives, as well as data retrieved from Annual Summaries between 1916 and 1950. A combination of both sources produced the largest amount of original information ever collected and researched in mainland Spain between 1916 and 2020.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

MOPREDAS_century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020

Gonzalez‐Hidalgo

Beguerı́a

Peña‐Angulo

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Tahir, Ajjur [20] also concluded there would be extreme heatwaves and increasing wet-bulb temperatures that could damage the human habitability of vital urban centers in the Arabian Peninsula by the end of the 21st century. Climatic extremes in the Arabian Peninsula might be influenced by global modes of climate variability [24]. Qatar has three principal aquifers representing the primary source for agricultural water requirements (see Figure 2) [16].…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Groundwater Recharge Assessment to Input Data in Arid Areas

Ajjur,

Di Lorenzo

2024

Hydrology

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Natural groundwater recharge (GR) assessment depends on several hydrogeological and climatic inputs, where uncertainty is inevitable. Assessing how inputs’ uncertainty affects GR estimation is important; however, it remains unclear in arid areas. This study assesses inputs’ uncertainty by examining the changes in GR simulations resulting from modifications in climatic, land use, and soil inputs. A physical-based hydrological model was built to estimate GR from 18 different GR scenarios across Qatar. Scenarios S1–S7 were created from different climatic inputs but identical land use and soil maps. Scenarios S8–S14 were created from different land use maps (analyzed from historical Landsat satellite images) but similar climatic and soil inputs. In S15–S18, the soil parameters were changed while the climatic and land use maps were kept the same. The results show that climatic inputs are key factors controlling the GR in arid areas, followed by land use inputs and soil classification. A strong correlation was observed between the GR values and precipitation, while moderate (non-significant) correlations were observed between the GR values and potential evapotranspiration and wind speed. Soil changes affected the GR simulations but inconsiderably compared with climatic and land use inputs. Since GR estimation is fundamental but uncertain in arid areas, the study findings contribute to narrowing the uncertainty in GR estimation.

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“…The climate is hyper-arid, with an average long-term maximum temperature of 35 °C and a long-term annual rainfall of 77 mm. Qatar, and the Arabian Peninsula in general, aridity and warming trend are expected to increase through the 21st century (Ajjur and Al-Ghamdi, 2021a, b, c;Al-Humaiqani and Al-Ghamdi, 2022;Serdar et al, 2022), with a possible link to global teleconnection patterns (Ajjur and Al-Ghamdi, 2021d;Ajjur and Riffi, 2020).…”

Section: Case Study Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff uncertainty associated with global climate model chosen in regional climate modeling

Ajjur,

Al-Ghamdi

2024

Proc. IAHS

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Abstract. Uncertain climatic projections result in uncertain runoff predictions, which lead to unreliable water resources management and floods mitigation measures. This study investigates runoff uncertainty associated with Global Climate Models (GCMs) chosen as boundary conditions in regional climate models (RCMs). To this end, the study projected surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and potential evapotranspiration, over Qatar, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) RCM driven by three GCMs: CCSM4, MPI-ESM, and NorESM. Historical projections were made during 1976–2005 while future projections were made during 2071–2100 under the business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5). The study then inputs climatic parameters in addition to topographic and groundwater data, in a physically based water balance model to compare runoff simulations. During historical and future periods, climatic projections differed among the RCM runs, especially precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Uncertainty in climatic projections caused significant uncertainty in runoff estimations. Runoff estimations varied from 12.2 to 45 Mm3 yr−1, with an average value of 24.4 Mm3 yr−1 during 1976–2005, and from 12.3 to 52.4 Mm3 yr−1, with an average value of 32.4 Mm3 yr−1 during 2071–2100. All RCM runs agreed on future runoff increases. Since runoff is a main cause of floods and alleviating flood risk can be hindered if climatic projections are incompetent, the study's findings emphasize on narrowing the uncertainty in GCM projections. The study also encourages Qatar authorities to implement managed aquifer recharge projects like rainwater harvesting to alleviate floods risk.

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Variation in Seasonal Precipitation over Gaza (Palestine) and Its Sensitivity to Teleconnection Patterns

Cited by 10 publications

References 59 publications

MOPREDAS_century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020

MOPREDAS_century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020

Sensitivity of Groundwater Recharge Assessment to Input Data in Arid Areas

Runoff uncertainty associated with global climate model chosen in regional climate modeling

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