Variation of the summer Asian westerly jet over the last millennium based on the PMIP3 simulations

Jiang, Nanxuan; Yan, Qing; Wang, Huijun

doi:10.1177/0959683619883011

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Model‐based studies have shown that the summer STJ over the larger Asian domain moved generally poleward during the Medieval Climate Anomaly due to a combination of several factors including an El Niño‐like Pacific Ocean, warm Indian Ocean, large volcanic eruptions, and higher solar irradiance (Fallah et al, 2016; Jiang et al, 2020). Our multicentury HJL proxy could be used as a real‐world target to compare against long model simulations and thereby determine whether the enhanced variance and recent spate of poleward excursions is in fact unusual and due to either natural climate variability or anthropogenic climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Poleward Excursions by the Himalayan Subtropical Jet Over the Past Four Centuries

Thapa

George

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Since the 1980s, the subtropical jet stream has generally moved poleward, but its behavior varies by region and season. Here we examine the interannual variability and trends in the latitudinal position of the spring subtropical jet over the Himalayas. During the modern period (1948 to 2018), the spring (March-April-May) jet is typically anchored immediately south of the Himalayas but has rarely (in 1956, 1971, 1984, and 1999) moved poleward to pass over Kyrgyzstan and northwest China. A tree-ring reconstruction of the jet's latitude indicates that such poleward excursions may have become more frequent after 1950, but it is not clear whether that behavior is unprecedented within the past four centuries. These insights into the behavior of the Himalayan subtropical jet may improve seasonal weather forecasts for the region and provide a target for climate simulations to test whether the recent spate of excursions is unusual and due to anthropogenic warming. Plain Language Summary The subtropical jet stream (STJ) is a band of high-speed westerly winds in the upper atmosphere located near the subtropics. Since the 1980s, the STJ has generally moved poleward, but its behavior varies strongly by region and season. We studied the STJ over the Himalayas and found, during 1948-2018, that the spring STJ is typically anchored near the Himalayan foothills. In a few years (1956, 1971, 1984, and 1999); however, it has moved far north to pass over Kyrgyzstan and northwest China. A tree-ring reconstruction of the jet's north-south position suggests that this type of poleward tracks has happened before, but the past few decades may be unusual due to the number of such events. Including the potential north-south range of the Himalayan subtropical jet into forecasting models might help improve the accuracy of spring weather predictions in this region. Our multicentury record can be used to test how well models simulate the Himalayan jet and investigate whether anthropogenic warming is the cause of the recent poleward extremes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Poleward Excursions by the Himalayan Subtropical Jet Over the Past Four Centuries

Thapa

George

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Note that the impact of PDO on the ECSP is more prominent than that of the AMO under the warmer background from the perspective of the last millennium. On the one hand, the meridional temperature gradient reduction during the MCA can cause the poleward movement of the westerly jet stream compared to that during the LIA (Jiang, Yan, & Wang, 2020). Then, the stream is located more northward and only affects the precipitation north of the YRV.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined Impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Summer Precipitation in Eastern China During the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age

Ge,

Miao,

Lang

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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We investigate the joint effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on eastern China summer precipitation (ECSP) during two typical periods in the last millennium [i.e., the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA)] using simulations from five selected climate models. The multimodel mean indicates that the ECSP anomalies under the four combined AMO and PDO phases differ between the MCA and the LIA. During the MCA, the meridional wave train induced by the PDO‐related convective heating over the northwestern Pacific is dominant and the zonal wave train related to the AMO is secondary. Independent of the AMO phase, deficient precipitation appears over South China in both PDO+ phases and vice versa. Meanwhile, most areas north of the Yangtze River valley feature positive anomalies in the PDO+/AMO+ phase but deficits in the PDO+/AMO– phase. In comparison, the Huanghe–Huaihe River valley and southern Northeast China receive excessive and deficient precipitation in the PDO–/AMO+ and PDO–/AMO– phases, respectively. During the LIA, the zonal wave train induced by the AMO locates more southeastward than that during the MCA and has an overwhelming impact on the ECSP. Specifically, regardless of the PDO phase, excessive ECSP exists over Northeast China and South China in both AMO+ phases and vice versa. Moreover, precipitation between the two regions is excessive when the PDO is in phase with the AMO but deficient when they are out of phase.

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“…Meanwhile, earlier research was mainly focused on decadal climate change in the globe/NH (Schurer et al ., 2014; Atwood et al ., 2016) and in Europe (Hegerl et al ., 2011; Luterbacher et al ., 2016). In previous research based on the simulations participated in PMIP3, there are many studies on regional moist (Shi et al ., 2016a; Bai et al ., 2019) and monsoon (Sun et al ., 2015; Shi et al ., 2016b; Shi et al ., 2017; Jiang et al ., 2020) climate change in China during the LM, while regional SAT attribution has received less attention. A previous study showed that summer SAT decreased over time during the LM, with multi‐decadal variations superimposed on the long‐term cooling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection and attribution of summer temperature changes in China during the last millennium

Wang

Jia

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The last millennium (LM, 1000-1850 AD) is crucial for studying historical climate change on decadal to multidecadal timescales. The summer surface air temperature (SAT) evolutions on regional scales (e.g. over China) are more uncertain than the globe/Northern Hemisphere, especially in response to external forcing factors and internal climate variability. Here, we provide onesignal (full-forcing) fingerprints of summer SAT in China derived from three large ensemble model archives with a multi-proxy reconstruction during the LM, Little Ice Age (LIA, 1451-1850 AD), and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1000-1250 AD), respectively. Our results show that (a) SATs in the northeast, southeast, northwest, and Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions of China show evident decreasing trends during the LM. External forcing response from all model archives agrees with the regional SAT reconstruction but underestimates variability in northwest China at the multidecadal timescale. (b) During the LIA, the summer regional SAT exhibits a cold condition in the reconstruction and simulations, especially in the northeast and northwest regions of China. External forcing responses in most model archives are the dominant factor on multidecadal SAT evolutions in the southeast, northeast, and TP regions of China and decadal SAT evolutions in northwest China. (c) During the MCA, detection and attribution of SAT shows that internal climate variability dominates in southeast, northeast, and TP regions of China, but external forcing dominates in northwest China at decadal to multidecadal timescales. These results contribute to a better understanding of the causes and mechanisms of regional climate change.

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Variation of the summer Asian westerly jet over the last millennium based on the PMIP3 simulations

Cited by 8 publications

References 68 publications

Poleward Excursions by the Himalayan Subtropical Jet Over the Past Four Centuries

Poleward Excursions by the Himalayan Subtropical Jet Over the Past Four Centuries

Combined Impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Summer Precipitation in Eastern China During the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age

Detection and attribution of summer temperature changes in China during the last millennium

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