Aim
Many studies use differences among plant populations to infer future plant responses, but these predictions will provide meaningful insights only if patterns of plasticity among populations are similar (i.e., in the absence of populationâbyâenvironment interaction, PÂ ĂÂ E). In this study, we tested whether PÂ ĂÂ E is considered in climate change studies. Specifically, we evaluated whether population differentiation varies across environments and whether PÂ ĂÂ E is determined by aspects of the study system and experimental design.
Location
Global.
Methods
We conducted a literature search in the Thomson Reuters Web of Science database to identify studies assessing population differentiation in a climate change context. We quantified the occurrence of PÂ ĂÂ E and performed a metaâanalysis to calculate the percentage of traits showing PÂ ĂÂ E in the study cases.
Results
We identified 309 study cases (from 237 published articles) assessing population differentiation in 172 plant species, of which 64% included more than one test environment and tested PÂ ĂÂ E. In 77% of these studies, PÂ ĂÂ E was significant for at least one functional trait. The overall proportion of traits showing PÂ ĂÂ E was 33.4% (95% confidence interval 27.7â39.3). These results were generally consistent across lifeâforms, ecoregions and type of experiment. Furthermore, population differentiation varied across test environments in 76% of cases. The overall proportion of traits showing environmentâdependent population differentiation was 53.7% (95% confidence interval 37.9â69.3).
Conclusions
Our findings revealed that differences in phenotypic plasticity among populations are common but are usually neglected in order to forecast population responses to climate change. Future studies should assess population differentiation in many test environments (accounting for PÂ ĂÂ E) that realistically reflect future environmental conditions, assessing climate change drivers that are rarely considered (e.g., multifactor experiments incorporating higher CO2 levels). Our review also revealed the predominant focus of population studies on trees from temperate climates, identifying underexplored lifeâforms (shrubs, annuals), phylogenetic groups (ferns, ancient gymnosperms) and ecoregions (tropical, arctic) that should receive more attention in future.